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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

Lorient

T S S S T

5–1

Full-time

Metz

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

64%

61%

Both score Ø 44%

52%

36%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%

19 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 18. · Metz 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	25	5	4	+48	80
2	Monaco	32	24	5	3	+63	77
3	Nice	33	21	10	2	+28	73
4	Lyon	33	17	4	12	+26	55
5	Marseille	34	14	10	10	+10	52
6	Bordeaux	33	14	10	9	+8	52
7	St Etienne	32	11	12	9	+6	45
8	Guingamp	33	12	8	13	-4	44
9	Rennes	33	10	13	10	-6	43
10	Nantes	33	11	9	13	-16	42
11	Toulouse	33	10	11	12	-1	41
12	Montpellier	34	10	9	15	-10	39
13	Angers	33	11	6	16	-11	39
14	Lille	33	10	7	16	-10	37
15	Metz	33	9	9	15	-31	36
16	Caen	33	9	6	18	-23	33
17	Nancy	34	8	8	18	-19	32
18	Lorient	33	9	4	20	-27	31
19	Dijon	33	6	11	16	-11	29
20	Bastia	33	6	11	16	-20	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	16	14	1	1	+42	43
2	Nice	17	13	4	0	+23	43
3	Paris SG	17	12	5	0	+30	41
4	Marseille	17	11	4	2	+18	37
5	Lyon	16	11	0	5	+20	33
6	Guingamp	16	10	3	3	+12	33
7	Rennes	17	9	6	2	+11	33
8	Montpellier	17	8	5	4	+11	29
9	Bordeaux	17	8	5	4	+6	29
10	Toulouse	16	8	4	4	+11	28
11	St Etienne	16	7	7	2	+11	28
12	Angers	17	7	5	5	+5	26
13	Metz	17	6	6	5	-8	24
14	Caen	16	7	2	7	-9	23
15	Nantes	17	6	4	7	-9	22
16	Nancy	17	6	3	8	-1	21
17	Dijon	16	5	5	6	+3	20
18	Lorient	16	6	2	8	-8	20
19	Bastia	17	3	10	4	+0	19
20	Lille	16	5	3	8	-4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	0	4	+18	39
2	Monaco	16	10	4	2	+21	34
3	Nice	16	8	6	2	+5	30
4	Bordeaux	16	6	5	5	+2	23
5	Lyon	17	6	4	7	+6	22
6	Nantes	16	5	5	6	-7	20
7	Lille	17	5	4	8	-6	19
8	St Etienne	16	4	5	7	-5	17
9	Marseille	17	3	6	8	-8	15
10	Toulouse	17	2	7	8	-12	13
11	Angers	16	4	1	11	-16	13
12	Metz	16	3	3	10	-23	12
13	Guingamp	17	2	5	10	-16	11
14	Nancy	17	2	5	10	-18	11
15	Lorient	17	3	2	12	-19	11
16	Caen	17	2	4	11	-14	10
17	Rennes	16	1	7	8	-17	10
18	Bastia	16	3	1	12	-20	10
19	Montpellier	17	2	4	11	-21	10
20	Dijon	17	1	6	10	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.