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Ligue 1
Referee: F Letexier
Monaco
S U S S S
3–1
Full-time
Marseille
T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,2
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,2
This season — Ligue 1 · 20/19 matches
Win Ø 51%
55%
47%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
80%
42%
Both score Ø 64%
65%
63%
Average goals
3,4
2,4
Scored
2,0
1,4
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%
8 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 1
0 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 4
3 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 21
3 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Monaco 4. · Marseille 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 21 14 3 4 +37 45
2 Lille 20 12 6 2 +20 42
3 Lyon 20 11 7 2 +20 40
4 Monaco 20 11 3 6 +10 36
5 Rennes 20 10 6 4 +8 36
6 Marseille 19 9 5 5 +7 32
7 Lens 21 9 4 8 +0 31
8 Angers 20 9 3 8 -6 30
9 Bordeaux 20 8 5 7 +2 29
10 Metz 20 7 7 6 +3 28
11 Montpellier 21 8 4 9 -6 28
12 Brest 20 8 2 10 -5 26
13 Nice 20 7 5 8 -5 26
14 Strasbourg 20 7 2 11 -3 23
15 Reims 20 5 6 9 -3 21
16 St Etienne 20 4 7 9 -10 19
17 Nantes 20 3 9 8 -12 18
18 Nimes 20 4 3 13 -25 15
19 Dijon 19 2 8 9 -14 14
20 Lorient 19 3 3 13 -18 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Monaco Marseille
12′
N. Radonjić 0–1
D. Ćaleta-Car
21′
🟨 Leonardo Balerdi
Half-time 0–1
A. Golovin 🔁
↦ R. Aguilar
46′
1–1 G. Maripán
A. Golovin
47′
49′
🟨 Hiroki Sakai
59′
🔁 A. Milik
↦ D. Benedetto
67′
🔁 V. Germain
↦ F. Thauvin
K. Diatta 🔁
↦ S. Diop
68′
68′
🔁 D. Payet
↦ N. Radonjić
2–1 A. Tchouaméni
A. Golovin
75′
76′
🟨 Álvaro González
76′
🔁 S. Khaoui
↦ M. Cuisance
S. Jovetić 🔁
↦ W. Ben Yedder
78′
Krépin Diatta 🟨
81′
82′
🟨 Saîf-Eddine Khaoui
Aleksandr Golovin 🟨
89′
Youssouf Fofana 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Pape Gueye
P. Pellegri 🔁
↦ K. Volland
91′
3–1 S. Jovetić
91′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Monaco

4-4-2
40 B. Lecomte G
29 D. Sidibé D
26 R. Aguilar M
3 G. Maripán D
32 B. Badiashile D
12 Caio Henrique D
8 A. Tchouaméni M
22 Y. Fofana M
31 K. Volland F
9 W. Ben Yedder F
37 S. Diop M
Bench (9)
17 A. Golovin
27 K. Diatta
10 S. Jovetić
19 P. Pellegri
20 A. Disasi
2 F. Ballo
30 V. Mannone
34 C. Matsima
36 E. Matazo

Coach: N. Kovač

Marseille

4-2-3-1
30 S. Mandanda G
2 H. Sakai D
3 Álvaro González D
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
29 Pol Lirola D
5 L. Balerdi M
7 N. Radonjić M
17 M. Cuisance M
22 P. Gueye M
9 D. Benedetto F
26 F. Thauvin M
Bench (9)
19 A. Milik
28 V. Germain
10 D. Payet
24 S. Khaoui
25 Y. Nagatomo
11 Luis Henrique
23 M. Aké
16 Y. Pelé
32 L. Perrin

Coach: André Villas-Boas

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,76
U
3,96
B
4,38
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,76
U2,5
2,07
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.