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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Marseille

S S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Montpellier

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/17 matches

Win Ø 50%

53%

47%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

40%

65%

Both score Ø 66%

67%

65%

Average goals

2,5

3,4

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,1

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

18 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 6

4 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 6. · Montpellier 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	17	10	6	1	+20	36
2	Lille	17	10	6	1	+19	36
3	Paris SG	17	11	2	4	+29	35
4	Rennes	18	9	5	4	+7	32
5	Monaco	18	9	3	6	+6	30
6	Marseille	15	8	4	3	+7	28
7	Lens	16	8	3	5	+2	27
8	Montpellier	17	8	3	6	+1	27
9	Angers	17	8	3	6	-3	27
10	Brest	18	8	2	8	-1	26
11	Metz	18	6	6	6	+2	24
12	Bordeaux	18	6	5	7	-2	23
13	Nice	17	6	4	7	-3	22
14	St Etienne	17	4	6	7	-7	18
15	Reims	17	4	5	8	-4	17
16	Strasbourg	18	5	2	11	-5	17
17	Nantes	18	3	7	8	-12	16
18	Dijon	17	2	6	9	-14	12
19	Lorient	18	3	3	12	-17	12
20	Nimes	18	3	3	12	-25	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	9	6	3	0	+13	21
2	Paris SG	9	6	1	2	+17	19
3	Brest	9	6	1	2	+5	19
4	Lyon	8	5	3	0	+13	18
5	Monaco	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Rennes	9	5	1	3	+1	16
7	Lens	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	Metz	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Angers	9	4	1	4	-3	13
10	Marseille	7	3	3	1	+3	12
11	Bordeaux	9	3	3	3	+1	12
12	Montpellier	9	4	0	5	-3	12
13	Nantes	9	2	5	2	-4	11
14	St Etienne	8	2	3	3	-2	9
15	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-3	8
16	Nice	9	2	2	5	-8	8
17	Reims	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Lorient	9	2	1	6	-6	7
19	Dijon	9	0	4	5	-7	4
20	Nimes	9	1	1	7	-13	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	9	5	3	1	+7	18
2	Paris SG	8	5	1	2	+12	16
3	Rennes	9	4	4	1	+6	16
4	Marseille	8	5	1	2	+4	16
5	Lille	8	4	3	1	+6	15
6	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Nice	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Angers	8	4	2	2	+0	14
9	Lens	8	4	1	3	+0	13
10	Monaco	9	4	0	5	-1	12
11	Bordeaux	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	Reims	10	2	4	4	+0	10
13	Metz	9	2	4	3	+0	10
14	Strasbourg	9	3	0	6	-2	9
15	St Etienne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
16	Dijon	8	2	2	4	-7	8
17	Nimes	9	2	2	5	-12	8
18	Brest	9	2	1	6	-6	7
19	Nantes	9	1	2	6	-8	5
20	Lorient	9	1	2	6	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.