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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Arsenal

U S T T U

3–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 45%

45%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

36%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,19 xG 0,33

66% Possession 34%

19 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

4 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 1

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 4. · Nott'm Forest 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	9	1	1	+15	+11.2	28
2	Man City	11	7	2	2	+9	+8.9	23
3	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+9	+6.4	22
4	Arsenal	11	5	4	2	+6	+5.1	19
5	Nott'm Forest	11	5	4	2	+5	+3.2	19
6	Brighton	11	5	4	2	+4	-1.9	19
7	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+3	+4.4	18
8	Newcastle	11	5	3	3	+2	+1.7	18
9	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	+0	+3.3	18
10	Tottenham	11	5	1	5	+10	+8.5	16
11	Brentford	11	5	1	5	+0	-1.6	16
12	Bournemouth	11	4	3	4	+0	+4.2	15
13	Man United	11	4	3	4	+0	+0.4	15
14	West Ham	11	3	3	5	-6	-3.0	12
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-7	-3.8	10
16	Leicester	12	2	4	6	-8	-11.0	10
17	Ipswich	11	1	5	5	-10	-14.4	8
18	Crystal Palace	11	1	4	6	-7	-2.4	7
19	Wolves	11	1	3	7	-11	-8.4	6
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-14	-10.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.9	16
2	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+8	+6.0	15
3	Man City	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.5	13
4	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+10	+5.8	12
5	Brighton	6	3	3	0	+3	+2.0	12
6	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.6	11
7	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+4	+4.0	10
8	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+2	+3.6	10
9	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.1	10
10	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.6	10
11	Chelsea	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.5	9
12	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.3	8
13	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.6	8
14	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.3	7
15	Leicester	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.7	5
16	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.1	5
17	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
18	Southampton	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
19	Wolves	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.9	4
20	Ipswich	5	0	3	2	-4	-3.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	-0.1	13
2	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.2	13
3	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
4	Man City	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.5	10
5	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.0	10
6	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.8	8
7	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.6	8
8	Arsenal	6	2	2	2	+0	-2.5	8
9	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.9	7
10	Man United	5	1	2	2	+1	+1.0	5
11	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.2	5
12	Everton	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.6	5
13	West Ham	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.3	5
14	Leicester	6	1	2	3	-5	-5.3	5
15	Ipswich	6	1	2	3	-6	-11.0	5
16	Tottenham	5	1	1	3	+0	+2.7	4
17	Crystal Palace	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.0	2
18	Wolves	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.4	2
19	Brentford	5	0	0	5	-7	-7.5	0
20	Southampton	6	0	0	6	-10	-6.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.