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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Miguel Fonseca

Guimaraes

S U S S T

2–0

Full-time

União de Leiria

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes União de Leiria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Guimaraes 39. · União de Leiria 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Cinfães	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Rebordosa	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Amarante	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Lusitânia	4	3	0	1	+1	9
6	Alverca	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Vila Real	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	6
10	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
11	Chaves	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
14	Moncarapachense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
15	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
18	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
19	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
20	Moura	3	2	0	1	+2	6
21	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
22	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
24	Maria da Fonte	3	2	0	1	-3	6
25	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
26	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
27	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+2	4
28	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
29	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
31	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
32	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+4	3
33	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
34	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Penafiel	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Alcains	2	1	0	1	+2	3
37	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
38	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
39	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
43	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
48	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
70	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
74	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Paredes	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
77	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
78	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
79	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
80	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
81	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
82	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
91	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
117	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
118	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
119	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
132	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
140	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
141	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
142	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
143	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
144	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
145	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+3	4
14	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+6	3
16	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	-4	3
48	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
49	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Penafiel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
84	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Amarante	3	2	0	1	-1	6
4	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
11	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
48	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Moura	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.