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Ligue 1
Referee: B Millot
Marseille
S S T U S
1–0
Full-time
St Etienne
S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille St Etienne
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,7
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%
9 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 6
0 Offside 3
16 Free kicks against 7
5 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 13. · St Etienne 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 4 3 0 1 +8 9
2 Rennes 4 3 0 1 +3 9
3 Nice 4 3 0 1 +2 9
4 Angers 4 3 0 1 +1 9
5 Lyon 4 2 1 1 +8 7
6 Reims 4 2 1 1 +3 7
7 Nantes 4 2 1 1 +1 7
8 Toulouse 4 2 1 1 -1 7
9 Lille 4 2 0 2 +1 6
10 Bordeaux 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Brest 4 1 2 1 -2 5
12 Nimes 4 1 1 2 -1 4
13 Marseille 3 1 1 1 -1 4
14 Montpellier 4 1 1 2 -1 4
15 Metz 4 1 1 2 -2 4
16 St Etienne 3 1 1 1 -2 4
17 Strasbourg 4 0 3 1 -2 3
18 Amiens 4 1 0 3 -3 3
19 Monaco 4 0 2 2 -6 2
20 Dijon 4 0 0 4 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille St Etienne
14′
🟨 Harold Moukoudi
32′
🔁 Z. Youssouf
↦ J. Aholou
1–0 D. Benedetto
M. Sanson
33′
Half-time 1–0
Morgan Sanson 🟨
60′
60′
🔁 D. Bouanga
↦ R. Berič
V. Germain 🔁
↦ M. Sanson
64′
Jordan Amavi 🟨
66′
72′
🔁 Y. Cabaye
↦ Sergi Palencia
73′
🟨 Loïc Perrin
F. Thauvin 🔁
↦ D. Benedetto
80′
S. Khaoui 🔁
↦ B. Sarr
83′
Maxime López 🟨
87′
Saîf-Eddine Khaoui 🟨
88′
Kevin Strootman 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-3-3
30 S. Mandanda G
2 H. Sakai D
17 B. Sarr F
3 Álvaro González D
18 J. Amavi D
4 B. Kamara D
10 D. Payet F
12 K. Strootman M
8 M. Sanson M
27 M. Lopez M
9 D. Benedetto F
Bench (7)
28 V. Germain
26 F. Thauvin
24 S. Khaoui
16 Y. Pelé
15 D. Ćaleta-Car
7 N. Radonjić
29 F. Chabrolle

Coach: André Villas-Boas

St Etienne

3-4-1-2
16 S. Ruffier G
24 L. Perrin D
26 M. Debuchy D
13 M. Trauco M
23 Sergi Palencia M
2 H. Moukoudi D
6 Y. M'Vila M
7 R. Boudebouz F
17 J. Aholou M
10 W. Khazri F
27 R. Berič F
Bench (7)
28 Z. Youssouf
20 D. Bouanga
29 Y. Cabaye
21 R. Hamouma
33 M. Nade
30 J. Moulin
18 A. Nordin

Coach: G. Printant

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,99
U
3,50
B
3,82
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,91
U2,5 ✓
1,90
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

B Millot · 146 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.