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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Lazio

T U S T U

3–2

Full-time

Genoa

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 28%

32%

23%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

23%

59%

Both score Ø 41%

18%

64%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,13 xG 1,76

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 9

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 9. · Genoa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	22	17	1	4	+31	+26.8	52
2	Milan	22	13	8	1	+18	+9.9	47
3	Roma	22	14	1	7	+14	+6.1	43
4	Napoli	22	13	4	5	+11	+7.8	43
5	Juventus	22	12	6	4	+18	+19.7	42
6	Como	22	11	7	4	+21	+11.7	40
7	Atalanta	22	9	8	5	+10	+12.2	35
8	Bologna	22	8	6	8	+5	-0.2	30
9	Lazio	22	7	8	7	+2	-6.6	29
10	Udinese	22	8	5	9	-9	-4.8	29
11	Sassuolo	22	7	5	10	-4	-9.2	26
12	Cagliari	22	6	7	9	-7	-13.0	25
13	Genoa	22	5	8	9	-6	+0.0	23
14	Cremonese	22	5	8	9	-9	-12.9	23
15	Parma	22	5	8	9	-12	-10.6	23
16	Torino	22	6	5	11	-19	-8.4	23
17	Lecce	22	4	6	12	-16	-14.6	18
18	Fiorentina	22	3	8	11	-10	+2.9	17
19	Verona	22	2	8	12	-19	-5.0	14
20	Pisa	22	1	11	10	-19	-11.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	1	2	+23	+18.7	28
2	Juventus	11	7	4	0	+15	+13.3	25
3	Napoli	10	7	3	0	+9	+1.9	24
4	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
5	Como	11	6	4	1	+13	+7.7	22
6	Atalanta	12	6	4	2	+9	+12.1	22
7	Roma	11	7	1	3	+8	+6.7	22
8	Lazio	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.2	16
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.6	14
10	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	-2	-5.3	14
11	Genoa	12	3	4	5	-3	+0.6	13
12	Udinese	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.5	13
13	Cagliari	10	3	3	4	-2	-5.8	12
14	Cremonese	10	2	5	3	-2	-1.4	11
15	Torino	11	3	2	6	-9	-5.8	11
16	Parma	11	2	4	5	-6	-5.8	10
17	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-8	-2.3	10
18	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-2	+5.3	9
19	Pisa	11	1	4	6	-9	-2.4	7
20	Verona	11	1	3	7	-8	-1.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	0	2	+8	+8.1	24
2	Milan	11	6	5	0	+10	-0.4	23
3	Roma	11	7	0	4	+6	-0.5	21
4	Napoli	12	6	1	5	+2	+5.9	19
5	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
6	Juventus	11	5	2	4	+3	+6.4	17
7	Bologna	12	4	4	4	+3	-3.8	16
8	Udinese	11	5	1	5	-4	-5.3	16
9	Atalanta	10	3	4	3	+1	+0.1	13
10	Lazio	11	3	4	4	-1	-6.4	13
11	Cagliari	12	3	4	5	-5	-7.2	13
12	Parma	11	3	4	4	-6	-4.8	13
13	Sassuolo	11	3	3	5	-2	-3.8	12
14	Cremonese	12	3	3	6	-7	-11.5	12
15	Torino	11	3	3	5	-10	-2.6	12
16	Genoa	10	2	4	4	-3	-0.5	10
17	Fiorentina	11	1	5	5	-8	-2.3	8
18	Lecce	10	2	2	6	-8	-12.4	8
19	Verona	11	1	5	5	-11	-3.8	8
20	Pisa	11	0	7	4	-10	-9.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.