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Serie A
Referee: F Cosso
Napoli
S T T S S
1–0
Full-time
Venezia
T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Venezia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 45%
71%
18%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
47%
65%
Both score Ø 41%
29%
53%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,97 xG 0,21
67% Possession 33%
25 Shots 4
8 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
14 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Napoli 3. · Venezia 19.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Atalanta 18 13 2 3 +23 +17.4 41
2 Inter 17 12 4 1 +30 +18.9 40
3 Napoli 17 12 2 3 +14 +10.0 38
4 Lazio 18 11 2 5 +8 +10.6 35
5 Fiorentina 16 9 4 3 +16 +8.4 31
6 Juventus 17 7 10 0 +15 +11.5 31
7 Bologna 16 7 7 2 +5 +3.2 28
8 Milan 16 7 5 4 +9 +10.2 26
9 Udinese 18 7 3 8 -5 -8.5 24
10 Torino 18 5 5 8 -5 -7.6 20
11 Roma 17 5 4 8 +0 +1.7 19
12 Empoli 18 4 7 7 -4 -10.2 19
13 Genoa 18 4 7 7 -11 -9.3 19
14 Parma 18 4 6 8 -9 -12.9 18
15 Lecce 17 4 4 9 -18 -9.1 16
16 Como 17 3 6 8 -12 -1.3 15
17 Verona 17 5 0 12 -19 -11.5 15
18 Cagliari 18 3 5 10 -15 -5.7 14
19 Venezia 17 3 4 10 -13 -9.0 13
20 Monza 18 1 7 10 -9 -6.5 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 Amir Rrahmani D
5 Juan Jesus D
17 M. Olivera D
99 F. Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
8 S. McTominay M
7 David Neres F
11 R. Lukaku F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (12)
81 G. Raspadori
21 M. Politano
37 L. Spinazzola
25 E. Caprile
16 Rafa Marín
60 F. Gioielli
18 G. Simeone
26 C. Ngonge
23 A. Zerbin
14 N. Contini
6 B. Gilmour
30 P. Mazzocchi

Coach: A. Conte

Venezia

3-4-1-2
35 F. Stanković G
15 G. Altare D
4 J. Idzes D
33 M. Šverko D
7 F. Zampano M
14 H. Nicolussi M
6 G. Busio M
79 F. Carboni M
77 M. Ellertsson F
11 G. Oristanio F
10 J. Yeboah F
Bench (12)
27 A. Candela
38 M. Kofod Andersen
20 J. Pohjanpalo
80 S. El Haddad
19 B. Bjarkason
9 C. Gytkjær
31 A. Chiesurin
23 M. Grandi
1 J. Joronen
5 R. Haps
25 J. Schingtienne
22 D. Črnigoj

Coach: E. Di Francesco

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,27
U
5,84
B
10,81
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,62
U2,5 ✓
2,30
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F Cosso · 49 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,31 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.