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Super League
Referee: C Vergetis
1–2
Full-time
AEK
T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aris Thessalonikis AEK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,8
This season — Super League · 31/35 matches
Win Ø 56%
45%
66%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
42%
66%
Both score Ø 47%
39%
54%
Average goals
2,6
3,2
Scored
1,4
2,2
Conceded
1,2
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%
9 Shots 28
4 Shots on target 12
2 Blocked shots 3
10 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 9
0 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 17
6 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Aris Thessalonikis 5. · AEK 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 AEK 35 23 10 2 +45 79
2 Panathinaikos 35 24 5 6 +54 77
3 Olympiakos 33 23 3 7 +45 72
4 PAOK 33 21 5 7 +45 68
5 Aris Thessalonikis 31 14 6 11 +6 48
6 Aris 32 14 6 12 +5 48
7 Lamia 35 10 8 17 -29 38
8 OFI Crete 33 8 13 12 -13 37
9 Atromitos 33 8 13 12 -15 37
10 Asteras Tripolis 33 11 4 18 -16 37
11 Panserraikos 33 8 12 13 -18 36
12 Panetolikos 33 7 9 17 -22 30
13 Volos NFC 33 7 9 17 -24 30
14 Kifisia 33 5 12 16 -31 27
15 Giannina 33 3 11 19 -32 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Aris Thessalonikis AEK
Valentino Fattore 🟨
6′
Birger Verstraete 🟨
25′
35′
🟨 Damian Szymański
1–0 Loren Morón
36′
Loren Morón ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
38′
Martín Montoya 🟨
40′
Half-time 1–0
N. Đurasek 🔁
↦ B. Verstraete
46′
49′
D. Sidibé 1–1
Lindsay Rose 🟨
51′
G. Fetfatzidis 🔁
↦ Manu García
64′
Álvaro Zamora 🟨
67′
71′
🔁 O. Pineda
↦ N. Eliasson
71′
🔁 S. Araújo
↦ D. Szymański
75′
🟨 Nordin Amrabat
K. Ansarifard 🔁
↦ Loren Morón
77′
J. Jules 🔁
↦ V. Darida
77′
Karim Ansarifard 🟨
82′
82′
🔁 R. Ljubičić
↦ S. Zuber
83′
🔁 Paolo Fernandes
↦ D. Sidibé
84′
N. Amrabat 1–2
87′
🔁 K. Galanopoulos
↦ N. Amrabat
91′
ℹ️ Sergio Araujo
VAR: Penalty cancelled
G. Delizisis 🔁
↦ L. Rose
93′
Full-time 1–2

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Vergetis · 46 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
30,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.