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Coppa Italia

Referee: M Mariani

Fiorentina

U S U U T

1–0

Full-time

Atalanta

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Coppa Italia · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

20 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 22. · Atalanta 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bologna	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+11	9
3	Frosinone	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Parma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Reggiana	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Cremonese	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Salernitana	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+0	6
11	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	-1	6
12	Sassuolo	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Milan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Catanzaro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
22	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	2
23	Spezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
24	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Cesena	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-4	1
29	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
42	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0
44	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Salernitana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Reggiana	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Milan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Verona	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	FeralpiSalo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Catanzaro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Sassuolo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
28	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0
29	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Parma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+1	6
3	Bologna	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Reggiana	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Cremonese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	FeralpiSalo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Verona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Cesena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0
31	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-4	0
32	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.