Ligue 1
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Le Havre
Metz
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris SG
|
28 | 18 | 9 | 1 | +41 | +23.8 | 63 |
| 2 |
Brest
|
29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | +17 | +9.6 | 53 |
| 3 |
Monaco
|
28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | +15 | +8.3 | 52 |
| 4 |
Lille
|
28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | +17 | +14.4 | 49 |
| 5 |
Nice
|
29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | +9 | +13.2 | 47 |
| 6 |
Lens
|
30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | +7 | +2.5 | 46 |
| 7 |
Rennes
|
30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +8 | +8.8 | 42 |
| 8 |
Lyon
|
29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | -7 | -3.9 | 41 |
| 9 |
Reims
|
29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | +2.2 | 40 |
| 10 |
Marseille
|
28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | +8 | +16.5 | 39 |
| 11 |
Toulouse
|
29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -3 | -6.9 | 36 |
| 12 |
Strasbourg
|
29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -7 | -1.7 | 36 |
| 13 |
Montpellier
|
29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -5 | +2.2 | 34 |
| 14 |
Nantes
|
30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | -20 | -15.8 | 31 |
| 15 |
Le Havre
|
29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | -10 | -10.8 | 28 |
| 16 |
Metz
|
29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | -19 | -19.8 | 26 |
| 17 |
Lorient
|
29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -20 | -17.0 | 26 |
| 18 |
Clermont
|
30 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -28 | -25.6 | 22 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Le Havre
Nantes
Lens
Le Havre
Le Havre
Montpellier
Clermont
Le Havre
Le Havre
Toulouse
M Bollengier · 79 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.