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Europa League
Referee: N Dabanović
Roma
U S T S S
3–1
Full-time
Ludogorets
S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Ludogorets
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,2
This season — Europa League · 5/7 matches
Win Ø 42%
40%
43%
Points per game
1,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
80%
43%
Both score Ø 69%
80%
57%
Average goals
2,8
2,9
Scored
1,6
1,6
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%
20 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
19 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Sep -22 Ludogorets – Roma 2–1

Match report

Roma Ludogorets
15′
🟨 Cicinho
41′
⚽ Rick 0–1
Cicinho
Half-time 0–1
N. Zaniolo 🔁
↦ A. Belotti
46′
C. Volpato 🔁
↦ M. Camara
46′
B. Cristante 🔁
↦ R. Karsdorp
46′
Cristian Volpato 🟨
49′
1–1 L. Pellegrini ⚽
56′
N. Zalewski 🔁
↦ N. Matić
61′
62′
🟨 Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues
64′
🟨 Jakub Piotrowski
64′
🟨 Anton Nedyalkov
2–1 L. Pellegrini ⚽
65′
71′
🔁 K. Despodov
↦ B. Tekpetey
71′
🔁 Nonato
↦ J. Piotrowski
71′
🔁 M. Tissera
↦ Thiago
79′
🟨 Rick
79′
ℹ️ Nonato
VAR: Goal cancelled
E. Bove 🔁
↦ C. Volpato
80′
3–1 N. Zaniolo ⚽
B. Cristante
85′
Nicolò Zaniolo 🟨
87′
87′
🔁 D. Gruper
↦ Cicinho
87′
🔁 S. Delev
↦ A. Witry
Matías Viña 🟨
88′
89′
ℹ️ Pedro Naressi
VAR: Card upgrade
90′
🟨 Nonato
90′
🟥 Olivier Verdon
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Roma

3-5-2
1 Rui Patrício G
3 Ibañez D
6 C. Smalling D
17 M. Viña D
2 R. Karsdorp M
20 M. Camara M
8 N. Matić M
7 L. Pellegrini M
92 S. El Shaarawy M
11 A. Belotti F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (12)
22 N. Zaniolo
62 C. Volpato
4 B. Cristante
59 N. Zalewski
52 E. Bove
19 Z. Çelik
65 F. Tripi
99 M. Svilar
63 P. Boer
72 L. Cherubini
14 E. Shomurodov
24 M. Kumbulla

Coach: José Mourinho

Ludogorets

4-2-3-1
1 S. Padt G
16 A. Witry D
24 O. Verdon D
3 A. Nedyalkov D
4 Cicinho D
6 J. Piotrowski M
30 Pedro Naressi M
37 B. Tekpetey M
95 Cauly M
73 Rick M
9 Thiago F
Bench (12)
11 K. Despodov
20 Nonato
10 M. Tissera
14 D. Gruper
90 S. Delev
23 Show
64 D. Yankov
5 G. Terziev
67 D. Hristov
8 Claude Gonçalves
32 I. Plastun
12 S. Sluga

Coach: A. Šimundža

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Dabanović · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.