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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Napoli

S T T U S

1–2

Full-time

Spezia

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 39%

64%

13%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

57%

80%

Both score Ø 55%

43%

67%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

27 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 4

11 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

10 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Napoli 5. · Spezia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	15	11	4	0	+18	37
2	Inter	16	11	3	2	+20	36
3	Roma	16	10	3	3	+11	33
4	Sassuolo	16	8	5	3	+6	29
5	Napoli	14	9	1	4	+18	28
6	Atalanta	15	8	4	3	+15	28
7	Juventus	14	7	6	1	+15	27
8	Lazio	16	7	4	5	+0	25
9	Verona	16	6	6	4	+5	24
10	Benevento	16	6	3	7	-7	21
11	Sampdoria	16	6	2	8	-1	20
12	Bologna	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Udinese	15	4	4	7	-6	16
14	Fiorentina	16	3	6	7	-6	15
15	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-10	14
16	Torino	16	2	6	8	-7	12
17	Parma	16	2	6	8	-18	12
18	Spezia	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Genoa	16	2	5	9	-14	11
20	Crotone	16	2	3	11	-22	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+12	16
4	Milan	7	4	3	0	+8	15
5	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+6	14
6	Napoli	7	4	1	2	+10	13
7	Sassuolo	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Verona	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Bologna	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Lazio	8	3	2	3	-2	11
11	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	+2	10
12	Fiorentina	8	2	4	2	+0	10
13	Cagliari	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Benevento	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Crotone	8	2	1	5	-7	7
17	Parma	8	1	4	3	-8	7
18	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-5	5
19	Torino	8	0	4	4	-5	4
20	Spezia	8	0	3	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	8	7	1	0	+10	22
2	Inter	8	5	2	1	+10	17
3	Sassuolo	8	5	2	1	+5	17
4	Napoli	7	5	0	2	+8	15
5	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+9	13
7	Verona	8	3	4	1	+3	13
8	Roma	8	4	1	3	-1	13
9	Benevento	8	4	1	3	-1	13
10	Atalanta	7	3	3	1	+3	12
11	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Udinese	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Torino	8	2	2	4	-2	8
14	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Bologna	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	Genoa	8	1	3	4	-9	6
18	Fiorentina	8	1	2	5	-6	5
19	Parma	8	1	2	5	-10	5
20	Crotone	8	0	2	6	-15	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.