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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Luton

U T T T T

2–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

5,3

4,2

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

3,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/26 matches

Win Ø 41%

20%

62%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

72%

73%

Both score Ø 73%

76%

69%

Average goals

3,4

3,5

Scored

1,4

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,77 xG 1,95

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Aston Villa 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	19	6	2	+39	+27.6	63
2	Man City	26	18	5	3	+33	+27.9	59
3	Arsenal	26	18	4	4	+39	+35.5	58
4	Aston Villa	26	16	4	6	+21	+12.1	52
5	Tottenham	26	15	5	6	+16	+1.9	50
6	Man United	26	14	2	10	+0	-2.6	44
7	West Ham	27	12	6	9	-4	-12.9	42
8	Newcastle	27	12	4	11	+12	+3.0	40
9	Brighton	27	10	9	8	+5	+7.3	39
10	Wolves	27	11	5	11	-3	-8.4	38
11	Chelsea	26	10	6	10	+1	+8.9	36
12	Fulham	27	10	5	12	-3	-13.3	35
13	Everton	27	8	7	12	-8	+3.8	31
14	Bournemouth	25	7	7	11	-14	-4.3	28
15	Crystal Palace	27	7	7	13	-15	-8.8	28
16	Brentford	27	7	5	15	-11	+2.7	26
17	Nott'm Forest	27	6	6	15	-15	-7.3	24
18	Luton	25	5	5	15	-16	-21.4	20
19	Burnley	26	3	4	19	-33	-23.8	13
20	Sheffield United	26	3	4	19	-44	-27.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+26	+26.0	35
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	+22.3	32
3	Aston Villa	13	10	1	2	+20	+12.7	31
4	Man City	13	9	4	0	+20	+12.4	31
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+10	+5.2	30
6	Newcastle	14	9	2	3	+18	+13.7	29
7	Fulham	14	8	1	5	+11	+2.4	25
8	Brighton	13	6	6	1	+11	+8.4	24
9	West Ham	13	6	4	3	+3	-6.4	22
10	Man United	13	7	1	5	-1	+1.5	22
11	Wolves	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.9	21
12	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
13	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-5	+2.5	16
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-1	+0.8	15
15	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.3	15
16	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
17	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-6	-1.4	13
18	Luton	13	3	2	8	-3	-2.5	11
19	Sheffield United	13	2	2	9	-24	-12.2	8
20	Burnley	13	1	2	10	-19	-7.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	1	3	+13	+15.5	28
2	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
3	Arsenal	13	8	2	3	+17	+13.1	26
4	Man United	13	7	1	5	+1	-4.2	22
5	Aston Villa	13	6	3	4	+1	-0.6	21
6	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
7	West Ham	14	6	2	6	-7	-6.5	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
9	Everton	13	5	3	5	-5	-5.2	18
10	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-3	-5.6	17
11	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-6	-1.0	15
12	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	-2.8	15
13	Crystal Palace	14	3	4	7	-14	-9.5	13
14	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.7	11
15	Brentford	13	3	1	9	-6	+0.1	10
16	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-14	-15.7	10
17	Luton	12	2	3	7	-13	-18.8	9
18	Nott'm Forest	13	2	3	8	-13	-8.6	9
19	Burnley	13	2	2	9	-14	-16.4	8
20	Sheffield United	13	1	2	10	-20	-15.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.