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Conference League
Referee: O Grinfeeld
Aston Villa
S S S U T
4–0
Full-time
Ajax
S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 9/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 62%
56%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,18 xG 0,31
46% Possession 54%
13 Shots 2
8 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 1
1 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Mar -24 Ajax – Aston Villa 0–0

Match report

Aston Villa Ajax
Morgan Rogers 🟨
11′
14′
🟨 Sivert Mannsverk
Ollie Watkins 🟨
19′
1–0 O. Watkins ⚽
Douglas Luiz
25′
J. Durán 🔁
↦ O. Watkins
33′
39′
🔁 C. Akpom
↦ A. Kaplan
Half-time 1–0
Y. Tielemans 🔁
↦ M. Rogers
46′
2–0 L. Bailey ⚽
Douglas Luiz
60′
66′
🟨 Sivert Mannsverk
66′
🟥 Sivert Mannsverk
69′
🔁 A. Gaaei
↦ J. Šutalo
T. Iroegbunam 🔁
↦ L. Bailey
74′
C. Lenglet 🔁
↦ Diego Carlos
74′
3–0 J. Durán ⚽
75′
79′
🔁 B. Tahirović
↦ D. Rensch
4–0 M. Diaby ⚽
81′
O. Kellyman 🔁
↦ Douglas Luiz
83′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-4-2
1 E. Martínez G
2 M. Cash D
3 Diego Carlos D
14 Pau Torres D
15 Álex Moreno D
31 L. Bailey M
7 J. McGinn M
6 Douglas Luiz M
27 M. Rogers M
19 M. Diaby F
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (9)
24 J. Durán
8 Y. Tielemans
47 T. Iroegbunam
17 C. Lenglet
71 O. Kellyman
25 R. Olsen
18 J. Gauci
29 K. Kesler-Hayden
12 L. Digne

Coach: Unai Emery

Ajax

3-4-2-1
40 D. Ramaj G
37 J. Šutalo D
13 A. Kaplan D
4 J. Hato D
2 D. Rensch M
6 J. Henderson M
16 S. Mannsverk M
25 B. Sosa M
38 K. Hlynsson F
8 K. Taylor F
9 B. Brobbey F
Bench (12)
10 C. Akpom
3 A. Gaaei
33 B. Tahirović
11 Carlos Forbs
24 S. Vos
18 J. Medić
1 G. Rulli
28 K. Fitz-Jim
39 M. Godts
22 R. Pasveer
21 B. van den Boomen
19 J. Rijkhoff

Coach: J. van 't Schip

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

O Grinfeeld · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.