Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Roma
Verona
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 3–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Milan
|
20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | +18 | 46 |
| 2 |
Inter
|
20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | +26 | 44 |
| 3 |
Juventus
|
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | +21 | 39 |
| 4 |
Napoli
|
19 | 12 | 1 | 6 | +24 | 37 |
| 5 |
Roma
|
19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | +9 | 37 |
| 6 |
Lazio
|
20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | +8 | 37 |
| 7 |
Atalanta
|
20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | +19 | 36 |
| 8 |
Sassuolo
|
20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | +3 | 31 |
| 9 |
Verona
|
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | +7 | 30 |
| 10 |
Sampdoria
|
20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | -1 | 26 |
| 11 |
Fiorentina
|
20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -10 | 22 |
| 12 |
Benevento
|
20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -17 | 22 |
| 13 |
Udinese
|
20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -7 | 21 |
| 14 |
Genoa
|
20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 |
Bologna
|
20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 16 |
Spezia
|
20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 18 |
| 17 |
Torino
|
20 | 2 | 9 | 9 | -9 | 15 |
| 18 |
Cagliari
|
20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -14 | 15 |
| 19 |
Parma
|
20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -24 | 13 |
| 20 |
Crotone
|
20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | -24 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Pau López
G
L. Spinazzola
M
G. Mancini
D
H. Mkhitaryan
F
L. Pellegrini
F
Gonzalo Villar
M
Borja Mayoral
F
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
F. Ceccherini
D
P. Dawidowicz
D
M. Zaccagni
F
I. Ilić
M
Coach: I. Juric
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Roma
Spezia
Lazio
Roma
Roma
Inter
Crotone
Roma
Roma
Sampdoria
M Piccinini · 104 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.