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Serie A

Referee: Carmine Russo

Roma

S S U S T

4–0

Full-time

Crotone

T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

72% Possession 28%

20 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Juventus	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Milan	5	3	0	2	+1	9
4	Bologna	5	3	0	2	-2	9
5	Roma	4	2	1	1	+4	7
6	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Lazio	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Inter	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Sampdoria	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Udinese	4	2	0	2	-2	6
14	Torino	4	1	1	2	+2	4
15	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Pescara	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Empoli	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Atalanta	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Palermo	4	0	2	2	-4	2
20	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Roma	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Milan	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Torino	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Chievo	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Inter	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Pescara	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Crotone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Palermo	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Lazio	3	1	1	1	-1	4
3	Pescara	2	1	0	1	+0	3
4	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Chievo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Juventus	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Milan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Inter	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Sampdoria	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-3	3
12	Palermo	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Empoli	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Torino	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Crotone	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Cagliari	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Atalanta	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.