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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Manganiello

Roma

S S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Crotone

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,5

This season — Serie A · 8/9 matches

Win Ø 43%

75%

11%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 29%

25%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,9

0,7

Conceded

0,6

2,1

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

72% Possession 28%

20 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 1

2 Offside 6

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Crotone 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+13	26
2	Napoli	9	8	1	0	+21	25
3	Juventus	9	7	1	1	+18	22
4	Lazio	9	7	1	1	+14	22
5	Roma	8	6	0	2	+10	18
6	Sampdoria	9	5	2	2	+6	17
7	Atalanta	10	4	3	3	+4	15
8	Chievo	9	4	3	2	+1	15
9	Bologna	9	4	2	3	-1	14
10	Fiorentina	9	4	1	4	+4	13
11	Torino	9	3	4	2	+0	13
12	Milan	9	4	1	4	-1	13
13	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-5	6
15	Udinese	9	2	0	7	-6	6
16	Cagliari	9	2	0	7	-11	6
17	Crotone	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Verona	10	1	3	6	-16	6
19	Spal	9	1	2	6	-8	5
20	Benevento	9	0	0	9	-20	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+8	15
2	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+8	13
3	Juventus	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Sampdoria	4	4	0	0	+10	12
5	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+11	10
6	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+8	10
7	Milan	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Roma	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Torino	4	1	2	1	+2	5
13	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-2	5
14	Crotone	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Spal	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Verona	5	1	1	3	-9	4
17	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Sassuolo	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Benevento	5	0	0	5	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Roma	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Lazio	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+8	10
6	Bologna	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Chievo	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Torino	5	2	2	1	-2	8
9	Fiorentina	5	2	0	3	+3	6
10	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-7	6
11	Genoa	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	-4	5
13	Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Cagliari	5	1	0	4	-8	3
15	Atalanta	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Verona	5	0	2	3	-7	2
17	Spal	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-10	1
19	Udinese	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	Benevento	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.