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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Lazio

T U S T U

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

53%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

73%

47%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 9. · Fiorentina 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	15	11	4	0	+18	37
2	Inter	15	11	3	1	+21	36
3	Roma	15	9	3	3	+9	30
4	Napoli	14	9	1	4	+18	28
5	Juventus	14	7	6	1	+15	27
6	Sassuolo	15	7	5	3	+5	26
7	Atalanta	14	7	4	3	+12	25
8	Verona	15	6	5	4	+5	23
9	Lazio	15	6	4	5	-1	22
10	Benevento	16	6	3	7	-7	21
11	Sampdoria	15	5	2	8	-2	17
12	Bologna	15	4	4	7	-6	16
13	Fiorentina	15	3	6	6	-5	15
14	Udinese	14	4	3	7	-6	15
15	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-10	14
16	Parma	15	2	6	7	-15	12
17	Torino	15	2	5	8	-7	11
18	Spezia	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Genoa	15	2	5	8	-13	11
20	Crotone	15	2	3	10	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Milan	7	4	3	0	+8	15
4	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Napoli	7	4	1	2	+10	13
6	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+9	13
7	Verona	8	3	2	3	+2	11
8	Fiorentina	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Bologna	7	3	1	3	-1	10
10	Sassuolo	7	2	3	2	+0	9
11	Lazio	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Cagliari	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Benevento	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Sampdoria	7	2	1	4	+1	7
15	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Crotone	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Parma	8	1	4	3	-8	7
18	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-5	5
19	Torino	7	0	3	4	-5	3
20	Spezia	8	0	3	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	8	7	1	0	+10	22
2	Inter	7	5	2	0	+11	17
3	Sassuolo	8	5	2	1	+5	17
4	Napoli	7	5	0	2	+8	15
5	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+9	13
7	Benevento	8	4	1	3	-1	13
8	Atalanta	7	3	3	1	+3	12
9	Verona	7	3	3	1	+3	12
10	Roma	7	3	1	3	-3	10
11	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Torino	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Bologna	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-8	6
18	Fiorentina	7	1	2	4	-5	5
19	Parma	7	1	2	4	-7	5
20	Crotone	8	0	2	6	-15	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.