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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Atalanta

U T S S T

5–0

Full-time

Milan

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

81%

44%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,9

2,2

Scored

2,4

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 4

12 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 6. · Milan 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	3	1	+22	42
2	Juventus	17	13	3	1	+14	42
3	Lazio	16	11	3	2	+22	36
4	Roma	17	10	5	2	+16	35
5	Cagliari	17	8	5	4	+10	29
6	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+13	28
7	Parma	16	7	3	6	+4	24
8	Napoli	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Milan	16	6	3	7	-3	21
10	Torino	17	6	3	8	-4	21
11	Sassuolo	16	5	4	7	+1	19
12	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-3	19
13	Verona	16	5	4	7	-3	19
14	Udinese	17	5	3	9	-15	18
15	Fiorentina	17	4	5	8	-7	17
16	Lecce	16	3	6	7	-12	15
17	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-13	15
18	Brescia	16	4	1	11	-14	13
19	Spal	17	3	3	11	-14	12
20	Genoa	17	2	5	10	-18	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	7	1	0	+9	22
2	Lazio	8	6	2	0	+17	20
3	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	20
4	Roma	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Cagliari	9	5	1	3	+6	16
6	Udinese	9	4	2	3	-3	14
7	Parma	8	4	0	4	+3	12
8	Verona	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Napoli	8	3	2	3	+2	11
10	Bologna	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Torino	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+4	10
13	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	+2	10
14	Milan	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Fiorentina	9	2	3	4	-4	9
16	Sampdoria	9	2	3	4	-5	9
17	Spal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Genoa	8	2	1	5	-3	7
19	Lecce	7	0	4	3	-5	4
20	Brescia	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+5	20
3	Atalanta	9	5	3	1	+9	18
4	Roma	9	5	3	1	+9	18
5	Lazio	8	5	1	2	+5	16
6	Cagliari	8	3	4	1	+4	13
7	Parma	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Milan	8	4	0	4	+0	12
9	Lecce	9	3	2	4	-7	11
10	Napoli	8	2	4	2	+2	10
11	Torino	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Sassuolo	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Brescia	8	3	0	5	-5	9
14	Bologna	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Fiorentina	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Verona	7	2	1	4	-3	7
17	Sampdoria	8	2	0	6	-8	6
18	Spal	9	1	1	7	-11	4
19	Udinese	8	1	1	6	-12	4
20	Genoa	9	0	4	5	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.