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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Villarreal

S T T T S

3–1

Full-time

Alaves

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

71%

28%

Points per game

2,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

53%

39%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,50 xG 0,94

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 6

10 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 3. · Alaves 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	16	1	2	+33	+18.5	49
2	Real Madrid	19	14	3	2	+24	+23.7	45
3	Villarreal	17	12	2	3	+18	+8.0	38
4	Ath Madrid	19	11	5	3	+17	+8.1	38
5	Espanol	18	10	3	5	+3	+5.6	33
6	Betis	19	7	8	4	+6	+5.9	29
7	Celta	18	6	8	4	+4	-2.1	26
8	Ath Bilbao	19	7	3	9	-8	+6.5	24
9	Elche	18	5	7	6	+1	-5.0	22
10	Sociedad	19	5	6	8	-3	+1.4	21
11	Getafe	19	6	3	10	-10	-7.0	21
12	Sevilla	18	6	2	10	-5	-9.9	20
13	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-3	-4.3	19
14	Alaves	18	5	4	9	-6	-1.5	19
15	Vallecano	18	4	7	7	-7	+0.8	19
16	Mallorca	18	4	6	8	-6	-10.7	18
17	Girona	18	4	6	8	-17	-11.4	18
18	Valencia	18	3	7	8	-13	-4.4	16
19	Levante	17	3	4	10	-9	-6.7	13
20	Oviedo	19	2	7	10	-19	-15.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+23	+14.6	27
2	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+15	+11.9	25
3	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+15	+13.5	24
4	Villarreal	9	7	1	1	+14	+6.2	22
5	Elche	10	5	4	1	+9	+2.7	19
6	Espanol	10	6	1	3	+1	+3.0	19
7	Osasuna	9	5	2	2	+6	+2.1	17
8	Betis	9	5	1	3	+7	+5.7	16
9	Ath Bilbao	10	5	1	4	-1	+7.2	16
10	Alaves	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.5	15
11	Valencia	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.7	13
12	Mallorca	9	3	4	2	+0	-1.5	13
13	Celta	10	2	5	3	+0	+0.6	11
14	Getafe	9	3	2	4	+0	-3.9	11
15	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.7	11
16	Sevilla	9	3	1	5	-1	-0.1	10
17	Vallecano	8	1	6	1	+0	+4.2	9
18	Girona	9	2	3	4	-9	-6.8	9
19	Oviedo	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.2	8
20	Levante	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	7	1	2	+10	+3.9	22
2	Real Madrid	10	6	3	1	+9	+10.2	21
3	Villarreal	8	5	1	2	+4	+1.7	16
4	Celta	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.8	15
5	Espanol	8	4	2	2	+2	+2.6	14
6	Ath Madrid	10	3	4	3	+2	-3.8	13
7	Betis	10	2	7	1	-1	+0.2	13
8	Levante	10	3	2	5	+1	-0.1	11
9	Sociedad	10	2	4	4	-2	-1.2	10
10	Sevilla	9	3	1	5	-4	-9.8	10
11	Vallecano	10	3	1	6	-7	-3.4	10
12	Getafe	10	3	1	6	-10	-3.1	10
13	Girona	9	2	3	4	-8	-4.5	9
14	Ath Bilbao	9	2	2	5	-7	-0.8	8
15	Mallorca	9	1	2	6	-6	-9.2	5
16	Oviedo	9	1	2	6	-11	-6.4	5
17	Alaves	8	1	1	6	-8	-3.1	4
18	Elche	8	0	3	5	-8	-7.7	3
19	Valencia	9	0	3	6	-16	-10.0	3
20	Osasuna	9	0	2	7	-9	-6.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.