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Champions League
Referee: S Vincic
Bayern Munich
S S S S S
4–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
4,0
3,5
Scored
3,2
2,0
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/13 matches
Win Ø 80%
91%
69%
Points per game
2,7
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
91%
77%
Both score Ø 72%
82%
62%
Average goals
4,1
3,5
Scored
3,1
2,3
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,1
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

2,14 xG 2,25
69% Possession 31%
21 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
9 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 2

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Apr -26 Real Madrid – Bayern Munich 1–2 8. May -24 Real Madrid – Bayern Munich 2–1 30. Apr -24 Bayern Munich – Real Madrid 2–2

Match report

Bayern Munich Real Madrid
-5′
🟨 Arda Güler
-5′
🟨 Arda Güler
-5′
🟥 Arda Güler
1′
⚽ A. Guler 0–1
1–1 A. Pavlovic ⚽
J. Kimmich
6′
Josip Stanišić 🟨
29′
29′
⚽ A. Guler 1–2
2–2 H. Kane ⚽
D. Upamecano
38′
40′
🟨 Éder Militão
42′
⚽ K. Mbappe 2–3
Vinicius Junior
Half-time 2–3
A. Davies 🔁
↦ J. Stanisic
46′
J. Musiala 🔁
↦ S. Gnabry
61′
62′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ B. Diaz
70′
🟨 Antonio Rudiger
78′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
86′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
86′
🟥 Eduardo Camavinga
3–3 L. Diaz ⚽
J. Musiala
89′
90′
🔁 F. Mastantuono
↦ A. Guler
90′
🔁 T. Pitarch
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
4–3 M. Olise ⚽
H. Kane
90′
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
44 J. Stanisic D
2 D. Upamecano D
4 J. Tah D
27 K. Laimer D
6 J. Kimmich M
45 A. Pavlovic M
17 M. Olise M
7 S. Gnabry M
14 L. Diaz M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
37 L. Prescott
40 J. Urbig
8 L. Goretzka
22 R. Guerreiro
19 A. Davies
11 N. Jackson
3 Kim Min-Jae
21 H. Ito
10 J. Musiala

Coach: Vincent Kompany

Real Madrid

4-4-2
13 A. Lunin G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
3 Eder Militao D
22 A. Rudiger D
23 F. Mendy D
21 B. Diaz M
5 J. Bellingham M
8 F. Valverde M
15 A. Guler M
10 K. Mbappe F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (12)
26 Fran
29 J. Navarro Jimenez
4 D. Alaba
2 D. Carvajal
6 E. Camavinga
18 A. Carreras
24 D. Huijsen
30 F. Mastantuono
45 T. Pitarch
19 D. Ceballos
20 F. Garcia
16 G. Garcia

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Vincic · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.