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Champions League
Referee: G Nyberg
Real Madrid
S S S S S
5–1
Full-time
Salzburg
U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Salzburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
5,3
3,5
Scored
3,8
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+2,3
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/10 matches
Win Ø 40%
50%
30%
Points per game
1,5
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
67%
70%
Both score Ø 54%
67%
40%
Average goals
3,8
3,4
Scored
2,0
1,1
Conceded
1,8
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,84 xG 0,45
70% Possession 30%
14 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
10 Corners 3
11 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Real Madrid Salzburg
1–0 Rodrygo ⚽
J. Bellingham
23′
2–0 Rodrygo ⚽
J. Bellingham
34′
Vinícius Júnior 🟨
42′
Half-time 3–0
3–0 K. Mbappé ⚽
48′
4–0 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
L. Modrić
55′
63′
🔁 M. Diambou
↦ M. Yeo
63′
🔁 K. Piątkowski
↦ D. Nene
D. Alaba 🔁
↦ J. Bellingham
64′
A. Güler 🔁
↦ Dani Ceballos
64′
Endrick 🔁
↦ K. Mbappé
72′
Brahim Díaz 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
72′
5–0 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
F. Valverde
77′
Jacobo Ramón 🔁
↦ A. Rüdiger
78′
82′
🔁 T. Kawamura
↦ N. Capaldo
82′
🔁 L. Gourna-Douath
↦ O. Gloukh
85′
⚽ M. Bidstrup 5–1
A. Dedić
88′
🔁 P. Ratkov
↦ A. Daghim
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
35 Raúl Asencio D
22 A. Rüdiger D
23 F. Mendy D
10 L. Modrić M
19 Dani Ceballos M
5 J. Bellingham M
11 Rodrygo F
9 K. Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (11)
4 D. Alaba
15 A. Güler
16 Endrick
21 Brahim Díaz
31 Jacobo Ramón
18 Jesús Vallejo
13 A. Lunin
14 A. Tchouaméni
36 Chema Andrés
26 Fran González
20 Fran García

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Salzburg

4-4-2
1 J. Blaswich G
70 A. Dedić D
6 S. Baidoo D
4 H. Blank D
3 A. Terzić D
49 M. Yeo M
7 N. Capaldo M
18 M. Bidstrup M
30 O. Gloukh M
45 D. Nene F
28 A. Daghim F
Bench (11)
15 M. Diambou
91 K. Piątkowski
16 T. Kawamura
27 L. Gourna-Douath
21 P. Ratkov
92 S. Hamzić
39 L. Morgalla
10 B. Clark
24 A. Schlager
36 J. Mellberg
8 Stefan Bajčetić

Coach: T. Letsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Nyberg · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.