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La Liga

Referee: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez

Villarreal

S S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Valencia

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,2

2,0

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 37%

32%

41%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

68%

44%

Both score Ø 63%

82%

44%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,04 xG 1,13

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 12. · Valencia 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	29	22	6	1	+44	+29.3	72
2	Girona	29	19	5	5	+25	+10.6	62
3	Barcelona	28	18	7	3	+23	+33.0	61
4	Ath Bilbao	29	16	8	5	+24	+15.3	56
5	Ath Madrid	28	17	4	7	+23	+19.3	55
6	Sociedad	29	12	10	7	+11	+5.7	46
7	Betis	28	10	12	6	+3	-4.0	42
8	Valencia	27	11	7	9	+1	-3.1	40
9	Getafe	29	9	11	9	-5	-7.4	38
10	Las Palmas	28	10	7	11	-2	-16.1	37
11	Osasuna	29	10	6	13	-10	-8.1	36
12	Villarreal	28	9	8	11	-5	-3.5	35
13	Alaves	29	8	8	13	-9	+1.2	32
14	Mallorca	29	6	12	11	-10	-4.8	30
15	Sevilla	29	6	10	13	-8	-10.5	28
16	Celta	29	6	9	14	-12	-8.0	27
17	Vallecano	28	5	11	12	-15	-4.4	26
18	Cadiz	29	3	13	13	-20	-15.4	22
19	Granada	28	2	8	18	-28	-16.4	14
20	Almeria	28	0	10	18	-30	-12.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	14	13	1	0	+21	+18.3	40
2	Real Madrid	14	12	2	0	+28	+21.2	38
3	Ath Bilbao	15	11	3	1	+22	+15.7	36
4	Girona	14	11	2	1	+21	+9.3	35
5	Barcelona	15	11	1	3	+14	+18.1	34
6	Valencia	14	8	4	2	+10	+3.2	28
7	Getafe	14	8	4	2	+5	-0.6	28
8	Betis	15	7	6	2	+8	+7.0	27
9	Sociedad	14	6	5	3	+6	+3.8	23
10	Las Palmas	14	6	4	4	+5	-4.4	22
11	Mallorca	15	5	7	3	+2	+0.3	22
12	Alaves	14	6	3	5	-1	+5.7	21
13	Osasuna	15	6	3	6	-4	-0.8	21
14	Sevilla	15	4	5	6	-2	-2.7	17
15	Villarreal	14	4	4	6	+0	+4.8	16
16	Cadiz	14	3	7	4	-4	+3.1	16
17	Celta	14	3	4	7	-7	+4.6	13
18	Granada	14	2	6	6	-7	-3.7	12
19	Vallecano	13	1	7	5	-10	-2.9	10
20	Almeria	14	0	8	6	-11	-0.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	10	4	1	+16	+8.1	34
2	Barcelona	13	7	6	0	+9	+14.9	27
3	Girona	15	8	3	4	+4	+1.3	27
4	Sociedad	15	6	5	4	+5	+1.9	23
5	Ath Bilbao	14	5	5	4	+2	-0.5	20
6	Villarreal	14	5	4	5	-5	-8.3	19
7	Vallecano	15	4	4	7	-5	-1.6	16
8	Ath Madrid	14	4	3	7	+2	+1.0	15
9	Betis	13	3	6	4	-5	-11.0	15
10	Osasuna	14	4	3	7	-6	-7.4	15
11	Las Palmas	14	4	3	7	-7	-11.7	15
12	Celta	15	3	5	7	-5	-12.6	14
13	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-9	-6.3	12
14	Sevilla	14	2	5	7	-6	-7.8	11
15	Alaves	15	2	5	8	-8	-4.5	11
16	Getafe	15	1	7	7	-10	-6.8	10
17	Mallorca	14	1	5	8	-12	-5.1	8
18	Cadiz	15	0	6	9	-16	-18.5	6
19	Almeria	14	0	2	12	-19	-12.1	2
20	Granada	14	0	2	12	-21	-12.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.