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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Leeds

S T U S S

2–0

Full-time

Millwall

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 35/37 matches

Win Ø 47%

63%

30%

Points per game

2,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

51%

41%

Both score Ø 42%

43%

41%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,54 xG 0,58

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 3. · Millwall 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	37	26	4	7	+41	+29.7	82
2	Ipswich	38	24	9	5	+31	+23.5	81
3	Leeds	35	22	7	6	+38	+31.1	73
4	Southampton	34	20	7	7	+23	+26.3	67
5	West Brom	36	19	9	8	+26	+6.6	66
6	Norwich	36	18	7	11	+17	+0.6	61
7	Hull	37	16	10	11	+7	+6.7	58
8	Coventry	37	15	12	10	+16	+11.8	57
9	Preston	37	16	8	13	-5	-12.3	56
10	Middlesbrough	38	16	6	16	+1	+12.8	54
11	Cardiff	38	16	5	17	-8	-19.7	53
12	Sunderland	38	14	6	18	+3	+5.5	48
13	Watford	38	12	12	14	+2	+1.0	48
14	Bristol City	38	13	8	17	-3	-2.5	47
15	Swansea	38	12	10	16	-10	-8.6	46
16	Millwall	37	11	10	16	-12	-11.6	43
17	Blackburn	38	11	9	18	-13	-6.7	42
18	Plymouth	38	10	11	17	-8	-16.9	41
19	Stoke	38	11	8	19	-18	-4.4	41
20	QPR	38	10	10	18	-14	-6.7	40
21	Birmingham	38	10	9	19	-17	-8.6	39
22	Huddersfield	38	8	15	15	-19	-10.9	39
23	Sheffield Weds	38	11	5	22	-31	-9.2	38
24	Rotherham	38	3	11	24	-47	-37.3	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	19	14	4	1	+24	+22.4	46
2	Leeds	17	13	4	0	+26	+20.8	43
3	West Brom	18	13	3	2	+19	+9.7	42
4	Norwich	18	13	2	3	+20	+9.0	41
5	Leicester	18	13	1	4	+22	+15.4	40
6	Southampton	17	11	2	4	+20	+18.3	35
7	Coventry	18	8	8	2	+12	+7.5	32
8	Sunderland	19	10	1	8	+7	+7.1	31
9	Preston	19	9	4	6	-3	-6.3	31
10	Cardiff	19	9	3	7	+1	-7.3	30
11	Hull	19	7	7	5	+7	+7.5	28
12	Plymouth	19	8	4	7	+5	-6.9	28
13	Birmingham	19	7	6	6	+2	-0.5	27
14	Bristol City	19	8	3	8	+2	+1.1	27
15	Middlesbrough	19	7	4	8	-1	+8.9	25
16	Sheffield Weds	19	7	4	8	-3	+1.4	25
17	Blackburn	19	6	5	8	-4	+1.8	23
18	Swansea	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.3	23
19	Huddersfield	19	5	7	7	-5	-3.2	22
20	Stoke	19	6	4	9	-10	-0.9	22
21	Millwall	19	6	4	9	-11	-4.1	22
22	Watford	19	5	6	8	+3	+8.6	21
23	QPR	19	4	6	9	-8	-0.0	18
24	Rotherham	19	3	7	9	-7	-10.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	19	13	3	3	+19	+14.3	42
2	Ipswich	19	10	5	4	+7	+1.0	35
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Leeds	18	9	3	6	+12	+10.2	30
5	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
6	Middlesbrough	19	9	2	8	+2	+3.9	29
7	Watford	19	7	6	6	-1	-7.6	27
8	Coventry	19	7	4	8	+4	+4.3	25
9	Preston	18	7	4	7	-2	-6.1	25
10	West Brom	18	6	6	6	+7	-3.1	24
11	Swansea	19	6	5	8	-6	-8.8	23
12	Cardiff	19	7	2	10	-9	-12.4	23
13	QPR	19	6	4	9	-6	-6.7	22
14	Millwall	18	5	6	7	-1	-7.5	21
15	Norwich	18	5	5	8	-3	-8.4	20
16	Bristol City	19	5	5	9	-5	-3.6	20
17	Stoke	19	5	4	10	-8	-3.4	19
18	Blackburn	19	5	4	10	-9	-8.4	19
19	Sunderland	19	4	5	10	-4	-1.6	17
20	Huddersfield	19	3	8	8	-14	-7.6	17
21	Plymouth	19	2	7	10	-13	-10.0	13
22	Sheffield Weds	19	4	1	14	-28	-10.6	13
23	Birmingham	19	3	3	13	-19	-8.1	12
24	Rotherham	19	0	4	15	-40	-27.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.