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Ligue 1
Referee: S Frappart
Lens
U T T S S
0–2
Full-time
Marseille
T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 21/20 matches
Win Ø 47%
43%
50%
Points per game
1,6
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
62%
30%
Both score Ø 54%
62%
45%
Average goals
3,1
2,2
Scored
1,7
1,4
Conceded
1,4
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%
9 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 5
4 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 6
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lens 7. · Marseille 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 21 15 5 1 +24 50
2 Nice 21 12 4 5 +16 40
3 Marseille 20 10 7 3 +12 37
4 Strasbourg 21 10 5 6 +16 35
5 Rennes 21 10 4 7 +21 34
6 Monaco 21 9 6 6 +10 33
7 Lens 21 9 6 6 +7 33
8 Lyon 21 8 8 5 +2 32
9 Lille 22 8 8 6 +0 32
10 Montpellier 21 9 4 8 +6 31
11 Nantes 21 8 5 8 +1 29
12 Brest 22 7 7 8 -5 28
13 Angers 20 6 8 6 -1 26
14 Reims 21 5 9 7 -1 24
15 Troyes 21 5 5 11 -10 20
16 Metz 21 4 7 10 -17 19
17 Clermont 21 4 6 11 -18 18
18 Lorient 21 3 8 10 -18 17
19 Bordeaux 21 3 8 10 -20 17
20 St Etienne 21 2 6 13 -25 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lens Marseille
Kevin Danso 🟨
20′
Facundo Medina 🟨
32′
34′
D. Payet 0–1
Half-time 0–1
Florian Sotoca 🟨
49′
David Costa 🔁
↦ F. Sotoca
59′
I. Baldé 🔁
↦ W. Saïd
65′
71′
🟨 Luan Peres
75′
🔁 C. Bakambu
↦ Luis Henrique
75′
🔁 Pol Lirola
↦ Gerson
77′
C. Bakambu 0–2
M. Guendouzi
P. Berg 🔁
↦ J. Clauss
83′
B. Pereira 🔁
↦ G. Kakuta
83′
C. Jean 🔁
↦ F. Medina
83′
86′
🟨 Pol Lirola
91′
🔁 L. Balerdi
↦ V. Rongier
92′
🔁 A. Harit
↦ D. Payet
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1
1 W. Fariñez G
11 J. Clauss M
24 J. Gradit D
4 K. Danso D
14 F. Medina D
10 G. Kakuta F
8 S. Fofana M
29 P. Frankowski M
28 C. Doucouré M
22 W. Saïd F
7 F. Sotoca F
Bench (9)
20 David Costa
33 I. Baldé
6 P. Berg
34 B. Pereira
25 C. Jean
16 J. Leca
35 A. Louveau
5 C. Wooh
18 Y. Cahuzac

Coach: F. Haise

Marseille

4-1-4-1
16 Pau López G
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
14 Luan Peres D
4 B. Kamara M
2 W. Saliba D
10 D. Payet F
21 V. Rongier D
8 Gerson M
17 C. Ünder M
6 M. Guendouzi M
11 Luis Henrique M
Bench (9)
13 C. Bakambu
29 Pol Lirola
5 L. Balerdi
7 A. Harit
26 O. Targhalline
3 Álvaro González
9 A. Milik
23 S. Kolašinac
30 S. Mandanda

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,55
U
3,47
B ✓
2,71
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,89
U2,5 ✓
1,92
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Frappart · 124 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.