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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Chelsea

S U T T U

1–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,35 xG 1,28

65% Possession 35%

10 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 5

5 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
5	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
6	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
7	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
8	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
9	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
11	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
12	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
13	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
14	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
15	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
4	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
5	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
6	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
7	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
8	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
3	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
4	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
5	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
6	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
7	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
8	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.