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Premier League
Referee: P Bankes
West Ham
S S T T T
1–0
Full-time
Man United
T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
4,3
1,8
Scored
2,3
0,8
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 34/33 matches
Win Ø 42%
26%
58%
Points per game
1,0
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
38%
52%
Both score Ø 42%
41%
42%
Average goals
2,6
2,7
Scored
1,1
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,30 xG 1,18
35% Possession 65%
15 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
4 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Ham 15. · Man United 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Man City 34 26 4 4 +58 +25.5 82
2 Arsenal 35 25 6 4 +44 +11.2 81
3 Newcastle 34 18 11 5 +32 +13.7 65
4 Man United 33 19 6 8 +9 +2.5 63
5 Liverpool 35 18 8 9 +25 +12.1 62
6 Tottenham 35 17 6 12 +7 -0.6 57
7 Brighton 32 16 7 9 +22 +18.9 55
8 Aston Villa 35 16 6 13 +3 -1.3 54
9 Brentford 35 12 14 9 +7 +2.1 50
10 Fulham 34 13 6 15 -1 -9.3 45
11 Chelsea 34 11 9 14 -5 +2.4 42
12 Crystal Palace 35 10 10 15 -11 -3.9 40
13 Wolves 35 11 7 17 -20 -9.7 40
14 Bournemouth 35 11 6 18 -30 -5.9 39
15 West Ham 34 9 7 18 -13 -3.9 34
16 Leicester 34 8 6 20 -13 -2.7 30
17 Leeds 35 7 9 19 -25 -11.8 30
18 Nott'm Forest 34 7 9 18 -32 -14.9 30
19 Everton 34 6 11 17 -25 -10.5 29
20 Southampton 34 6 6 22 -32 -13.9 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Ham Man United
1–0 S. Benrahma
27′
36′
🟨 Tyrell Malacia
Half-time 1–0
57′
🔁 A. Martial
↦ W. Weghorst
64′
🟨 Aaron Wan-Bissaka
74′
🔁 M. Sabitzer
↦ C. Eriksen
74′
🔁 J. Sancho
↦ Antony
Pablo Fornals 🔁
↦ S. Benrahma
87′
87′
🔁 Diogo Dalot
↦ A. Wan-Bissaka
88′
🔁 Fred
↦ T. Malacia
B. Johnson 🔁
↦ M. Antonio
95′
F. Downes 🔁
↦ Lucas Paquetá
95′
Emerson 🔁
↦ A. Cresswell
98′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1
1 Ł. Fabiański G
24 T. Kehrer D
27 N. Aguerd D
21 A. Ogbonna D
3 A. Cresswell D
28 T. Souček M
41 D. Rice M
20 J. Bowen M
11 Lucas Paquetá M
22 S. Benrahma M
9 M. Antonio F
Bench (9)
8 Pablo Fornals
33 Emerson
2 B. Johnson
12 F. Downes
10 M. Lanzini
49 J. Anang
13 A. Aréola
14 M. Cornet
18 D. Ings

Coach: D. Moyes

Man United

4-2-3-1
1 David de Gea G
29 A. Wan-Bissaka D
2 V. Lindelöf D
23 L. Shaw D
12 T. Malacia D
18 Casemiro M
14 C. Eriksen M
21 Antony M
27 W. Weghorst M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
10 M. Rashford F
Bench (9)
9 A. Martial
15 M. Sabitzer
25 J. Sancho
20 Diogo Dalot
17 Fred
49 A. Garnacho
5 H. Maguire
31 J. Butland
33 B. Williams

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,43
U
3,74
B
2,08
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,67
U2,5 ✓
2,23
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

P Bankes · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.