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Premier League
Referee: A Taylor
Man United
S S S T S
0–0
Full-time
Southampton
T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Southampton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,0
Scored
2,3
0,7
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 42%
60%
24%
Points per game
2,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
64%
52%
Both score Ø 52%
52%
52%
Average goals
3,0
2,4
Scored
1,6
0,8
Conceded
1,4
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,86 xG 1,11
47% Possession 53%
10 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 9
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 8
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man United 3. · Southampton 20.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 26 20 3 3 +34 +7.2 63
2 Man City 27 19 4 4 +42 +12.1 61
3 Man United 25 15 4 6 +6 +0.9 49
4 Tottenham 27 15 3 9 +12 +0.8 48
5 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 +18 +6.2 42
6 Newcastle 24 10 11 3 +18 -0.0 41
7 Brighton 24 11 6 7 +14 +9.4 39
8 Fulham 26 11 6 9 +4 -2.6 39
9 Brentford 25 9 11 5 +7 +3.4 38
10 Chelsea 26 10 7 9 +1 +0.9 37
11 Aston Villa 25 10 4 11 -7 -4.7 34
12 Crystal Palace 26 6 9 11 -12 -7.5 27
13 Wolves 26 7 6 13 -16 -4.1 27
14 Nott'm Forest 26 6 8 12 -26 -6.0 26
15 Everton 27 6 7 14 -18 -3.9 25
16 Leicester 26 7 3 16 -9 -1.9 24
17 Bournemouth 26 6 6 14 -26 -4.7 24
18 West Ham 25 6 5 14 -10 -0.3 23
19 Leeds 26 5 8 13 -11 -1.2 23
20 Southampton 25 6 3 16 -21 -4.0 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man United Southampton
Lisandro Martínez 🟨
10′
Casemiro ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
33′
Casemiro 🟥
34′
S. McTominay 🔁
↦ W. Weghorst
44′
Half-time 0–0
55′
🔁 S. Armstrong
↦ C. Alcaraz
A. Garnacho 🔁
↦ J. Sancho
73′
F. Pellistri 🔁
↦ Antony
74′
77′
🔁 S. Mara
↦ C. Adams
77′
🔁 A. Armstrong
↦ K. Sulemana
85′
🔁 P. Onuachu
↦ T. Walcott
Fred 🔁
↦ A. Garnacho
90′
H. Maguire 🔁
↦ Lisandro Martínez
90′
Luke Shaw 🟨
96′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Man United

4-1-4-1
1 David de Gea G
29 A. Wan-Bissaka D
19 R. Varane D
6 Lisandro Martínez D
23 L. Shaw D
18 Casemiro M
21 Antony M
25 J. Sancho M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
10 M. Rashford M
27 W. Weghorst F
Bench (9)
39 S. McTominay
49 A. Garnacho
28 F. Pellistri
17 Fred
5 H. Maguire
22 T. Heaton
20 Diogo Dalot
73 K. Mainoo
12 T. Malacia

Coach: E. ten Hag

Southampton

4-2-3-1
31 G. Bazunu G
2 K. Walker-Peters D
35 J. Bednarek D
37 A. Bella-Kotchap D
15 R. Perraud D
8 J. Ward-Prowse M
45 R. Lavia M
32 T. Walcott M
26 C. Alcaraz M
20 K. Sulemana M
10 C. Adams F
Bench (9)
17 S. Armstrong
18 S. Mara
9 A. Armstrong
12 P. Onuachu
22 M. Salisu
6 D. Ćaleta-Car
1 A. McCarthy
27 I. Diallo
24 M. Elyounoussi

Coach: Rubén Sellés

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,34
U ✓
5,26
B
9,22
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,63
U2,5 ✓
2,28
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.