Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Man United
Southampton
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
26 | 20 | 3 | 3 | +34 | +7.2 | 63 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | +42 | +12.1 | 61 |
| 3 |
Man United
|
25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | +6 | +0.9 | 49 |
| 4 |
Tottenham
|
27 | 15 | 3 | 9 | +12 | +0.8 | 48 |
| 5 |
Liverpool
|
26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | +18 | +6.2 | 42 |
| 6 |
Newcastle
|
24 | 10 | 11 | 3 | +18 | -0.0 | 41 |
| 7 |
Brighton
|
24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +14 | +9.4 | 39 |
| 8 |
Fulham
|
26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +4 | -2.6 | 39 |
| 9 |
Brentford
|
25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | +7 | +3.4 | 38 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | +1 | +0.9 | 37 |
| 11 |
Aston Villa
|
25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -7 | -4.7 | 34 |
| 12 |
Crystal Palace
|
26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -12 | -7.5 | 27 |
| 13 |
Wolves
|
26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -16 | -4.1 | 27 |
| 14 |
Nott'm Forest
|
26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -26 | -6.0 | 26 |
| 15 |
Everton
|
27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -18 | -3.9 | 25 |
| 16 |
Leicester
|
26 | 7 | 3 | 16 | -9 | -1.9 | 24 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -26 | -4.7 | 24 |
| 18 |
West Ham
|
25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -10 | -0.3 | 23 |
| 19 |
Leeds
|
26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -11 | -1.2 | 23 |
| 20 |
Southampton
|
25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | -21 | -4.0 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
David de Gea
G
A. Wan-Bissaka
D
Lisandro Martínez
D
L. Shaw
D
Antony
M
Bruno Fernandes
M
M. Rashford
M
W. Weghorst
F
Coach: E. ten Hag
G. Bazunu
G
K. Walker-Peters
D
J. Bednarek
D
A. Bella-Kotchap
D
R. Perraud
D
J. Ward-Prowse
M
R. Lavia
M
C. Alcaraz
M
C. Adams
F
Coach: Rubén Sellés
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Man United
Betis
Liverpool
Man United
Man United
West Ham
Man United
Newcastle
Man United
Barcelona
A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.