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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Ajaccio

T T T S T

0–1

Full-time

Montpellier

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 29%

23%

35%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

62%

Both score Ø 48%

42%

54%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,18 xG 1,13

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

13 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajaccio 18. · Montpellier 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	21	3	3	+42	+5.0	66
2	Marseille	26	17	4	5	+24	+2.5	55
3	Lens	27	15	9	3	+23	+4.2	54
4	Monaco	26	15	6	5	+19	+4.6	51
5	Rennes	27	14	5	8	+16	-0.7	47
6	Lille	27	13	7	7	+13	+6.9	46
7	Nice	26	11	9	6	+12	+2.5	42
8	Lyon	27	11	7	9	+11	+1.1	40
9	Reims	26	9	13	4	+8	+7.9	40
10	Lorient	26	11	7	8	+2	-2.2	40
11	Clermont	27	9	7	11	-12	-4.3	34
12	Toulouse	26	9	5	12	-5	+0.4	32
13	Montpellier	26	9	3	14	-5	-1.0	30
14	Nantes	26	6	10	10	-7	-2.7	28
15	Brest	27	5	8	14	-16	-7.7	23
16	Auxerre	27	5	8	14	-26	+2.4	23
17	Strasbourg	26	4	10	12	-14	-2.9	22
18	Ajaccio	26	6	3	17	-27	+0.7	21
19	Troyes	26	4	8	14	-21	-10.4	20
20	Angers	26	2	4	20	-37	-6.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+19	+0.8	35
2	Lens	13	11	1	1	+16	-0.1	34
3	Rennes	14	11	0	3	+19	+1.2	33
4	Lille	14	8	4	2	+7	+5.0	28
5	Reims	13	7	4	2	+9	+7.0	25
6	Monaco	13	7	2	4	+7	+0.6	23
7	Marseille	13	7	2	4	+7	+0.5	23
8	Lyon	13	6	4	3	+9	+3.6	22
9	Toulouse	14	6	4	4	+4	+2.9	22
10	Lorient	13	6	3	4	+4	+2.4	21
11	Nice	13	5	5	3	+6	+0.6	20
12	Nantes	12	4	5	3	+1	+1.1	17
13	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	+0	-1.5	17
14	Clermont	14	4	3	7	-14	-2.7	15
15	Auxerre	13	3	5	5	-9	+2.3	14
16	Strasbourg	14	2	6	6	-6	+0.6	12
17	Troyes	13	1	8	4	-6	-5.3	11
18	Brest	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.7	11
19	Ajaccio	12	3	1	8	-10	+2.0	10
20	Angers	13	1	2	10	-14	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	13	10	2	1	+17	+2.0	32
2	Paris SG	14	10	1	3	+23	+4.1	31
3	Monaco	13	8	4	1	+12	+4.1	28
4	Nice	13	6	4	3	+6	+1.9	22
5	Lens	14	4	8	2	+7	+4.3	20
6	Clermont	13	5	4	4	+2	-1.7	19
7	Lorient	13	5	4	4	-2	-4.7	19
8	Lille	13	5	3	5	+6	+2.0	18
9	Lyon	14	5	3	6	+2	-2.5	18
10	Reims	13	2	9	2	-1	+0.9	15
11	Rennes	13	3	5	5	-3	-1.9	14
12	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	+0.4	13
13	Brest	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.0	12
14	Nantes	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.7	11
15	Ajaccio	14	3	2	9	-17	-1.3	11
16	Strasbourg	12	2	4	6	-8	-3.5	10
17	Toulouse	12	3	1	8	-9	-2.5	10
18	Troyes	13	3	0	10	-15	-5.1	9
19	Auxerre	14	2	3	9	-17	+0.0	9
20	Angers	13	1	2	10	-23	-3.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.