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Bundesliga
Referee: R Schröder
Wolfsburg
T U T S U
1–1
Full-time
Union Berlin
U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolfsburg Union Berlin
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 48%
39%
57%
Points per game
1,5
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
61%
57%
Both score Ø 48%
43%
52%
Average goals
3,2
2,7
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,75 xG 1,30
58% Possession 42%
15 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Wolfsburg 8. · Union Berlin 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 24 15 7 2 +46 +5.9 52
2 Dortmund 24 16 2 6 +19 +6.1 50
3 RB Leipzig 24 13 6 5 +20 +6.5 45
4 Freiburg 24 13 6 5 +4 -2.4 45
5 Union Berlin 23 13 5 5 +8 +0.4 44
6 Ein Frankfurt 24 11 7 6 +12 -3.4 40
7 Mainz 24 10 6 8 +4 +0.3 36
8 Wolfsburg 23 9 7 7 +11 +3.8 34
9 Leverkusen 24 10 4 10 +4 +5.8 34
10 M'gladbach 24 8 6 10 -4 -3.2 30
11 Werder Bremen 24 9 3 12 -9 -3.3 30
12 FC Koln 24 6 9 9 -6 +0.6 27
13 Augsburg 24 8 3 13 -13 -2.0 27
14 Bochum 24 7 1 16 -30 -3.2 22
15 Hertha 24 5 6 13 -16 -4.5 21
16 Stuttgart 24 4 8 12 -12 -1.0 20
17 Schalke 04 24 4 8 12 -24 -1.6 20
18 Hoffenheim 24 5 4 15 -14 -4.9 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Wolfsburg Union Berlin
6′
🟨 Rani Khedira
14′
🟨 Morten Thorsby
Half-time 0–0
62′
🔁 J. Roussillon
↦ N. Gießelmann
L. Nmecha 🔁
↦ J. Wind
63′
63′
🔁 T. Baumgartl
↦ D. Doekhi
63′
🔁 P. Seguin
↦ R. Khedira
72′
J. Juranović 0–1
Sebastiaan Bornauw 🟨
73′
74′
🟨 Diogo Leite
77′
🔁 J. Haberer
↦ A. Laïdouni
R. Baku 🔁
↦ Y. Gerhardt
81′
K. Paredes 🔁
↦ K. Fischer
81′
J. Kamiński 🔁
↦ Paulo Otávio
81′
P. Wimmer 🔁
↦ M. Svanberg
82′
1–1 P. Wimmer
K. Paredes
84′
85′
🔁 K. Behrens
↦ S. Becker
94′
🟨 Kevin Behrens
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Wolfsburg

4-3-3
1 K. Casteels G
2 K. Fischer D
3 S. Bornauw D
5 M. van de Ven D
6 Paulo Otávio D
22 F. Nmecha M
29 J. Guilavogui M
31 Y. Gerhardt M
32 M. Svanberg F
23 J. Wind F
33 Omar Marmoush F
Bench (9)
10 L. Nmecha
20 R. Baku
40 K. Paredes
16 J. Kamiński
39 P. Wimmer
7 L. Waldschmidt
12 P. Pervan
4 M. Lacroix
8 N. Cozza

Coach: N. Kovač

Union Berlin

3-4-2-1
1 F. Rønnow G
5 D. Doekhi D
31 R. Knoche D
4 Diogo Leite D
18 J. Juranović M
2 M. Thorsby M
8 R. Khedira M
23 N. Gießelmann M
27 S. Becker F
20 A. Laïdouni F
11 S. Michel F
Bench (9)
26 J. Roussillon
25 T. Baumgartl
14 P. Seguin
19 J. Haberer
17 K. Behrens
28 C. Trimmel
37 L. Grill
40 J. Leweling
45 J. Siebatcheu

Coach: U. Fischer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,26
U ✓
3,23
B
3,41
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,28
U2,5 ✓
1,63
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Schröder · 105 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.