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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Roma

S S T S S

3–4

Full-time

Sassuolo

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 44%

56%

32%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

36%

56%

Both score Ø 46%

44%

48%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,53 xG 3,64

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 19

7 Shots on target 10

5 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Sassuolo 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	26	22	2	2	+44	+8.1	68
2	Juventus	25	15	5	5	+20	+3.4	50
3	Inter	26	16	2	8	+17	+9.0	50
4	Lazio	26	14	7	5	+22	+2.4	49
5	Roma	25	14	5	6	+11	+3.2	47
6	Milan	25	14	5	6	+10	-1.0	47
7	Atalanta	26	12	6	8	+12	+0.9	42
8	Torino	26	10	7	9	+0	+1.6	37
9	Bologna	26	10	6	10	-3	-0.8	36
10	Udinese	26	8	11	7	+4	-2.1	35
11	Fiorentina	26	9	7	10	+0	+3.7	34
12	Monza	26	9	6	11	-5	-2.4	33
13	Sassuolo	25	8	6	11	-7	-0.5	30
14	Empoli	26	6	10	10	-11	-3.9	28
15	Lecce	26	6	9	11	-7	-0.7	27
16	Salernitana	25	6	7	12	-16	-4.4	25
17	Spezia	25	5	8	12	-19	-6.3	23
18	Verona	25	4	6	15	-17	-2.0	18
19	Cremonese	26	1	9	16	-27	-4.8	12
20	Sampdoria	25	2	6	17	-28	-3.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+24	+3.5	34
2	Inter	13	11	0	2	+21	+3.6	33
3	Juventus	13	9	3	1	+19	+1.9	30
4	Milan	12	9	1	2	+11	+1.5	28
5	Roma	12	8	1	3	+9	-0.2	25
6	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	+0.9	24
7	Bologna	14	6	5	3	+7	+1.2	23
8	Torino	12	5	4	3	+3	+3.1	19
9	Fiorentina	13	5	4	4	-1	+3.4	19
10	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	+7	+3.1	18
11	Monza	13	5	3	5	+3	-1.1	18
12	Sassuolo	12	5	2	5	+1	-0.3	17
13	Udinese	12	3	7	2	+5	+2.1	16
14	Empoli	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.7	16
15	Salernitana	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.0	15
16	Spezia	13	3	6	4	-5	-5.2	15
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	13	2	6	5	-4	-0.6	12
19	Cremonese	13	1	3	9	-15	-2.4	6
20	Sampdoria	13	0	4	9	-15	-0.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+20	+4.6	34
2	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+12	+1.5	25
3	Atalanta	14	7	3	4	+5	-2.3	24
4	Roma	13	6	4	3	+2	+3.4	22
5	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+1	+1.4	20
6	Udinese	14	5	4	5	-1	-4.2	19
7	Milan	13	5	4	4	-1	-2.4	19
8	Torino	14	5	3	6	-3	-1.6	18
9	Inter	13	5	2	6	-4	+5.4	17
10	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	+1	+0.3	15
11	Lecce	13	4	3	6	-3	-0.1	15
12	Monza	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.3	15
13	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-8	-0.2	13
14	Bologna	12	4	1	7	-10	-2.0	13
15	Empoli	13	2	6	5	-8	-1.2	12
16	Salernitana	12	2	4	6	-15	-0.4	10
17	Sampdoria	12	2	2	8	-13	-3.0	8
18	Spezia	12	2	2	8	-14	-1.1	8
19	Cremonese	13	0	6	7	-12	-2.4	6
20	Verona	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.