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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

Mainz

T U T S T

1–1

Full-time

M'gladbach

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 18%

26%

Points per game

0,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

43%

83%

Both score Ø 66%

57%

74%

Average goals

2,4

3,7

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,6

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,31 xG 0,88

44% Possession 56%

21 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 6

0 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 17. · M'gladbach 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	23	19	4	0	+43	+26.1	61
2	Bayern Munich	24	17	3	4	+37	+41.4	54
3	Stuttgart	23	15	2	6	+23	+26.0	47
4	Dortmund	23	11	8	4	+16	+9.5	41
5	RB Leipzig	23	12	4	7	+19	+15.7	40
6	Ein Frankfurt	23	8	10	5	+6	-4.7	34
7	Hoffenheim	23	8	6	9	-2	-2.1	30
8	Werder Bremen	23	8	6	9	-3	-6.4	30
9	Freiburg	24	8	6	10	-12	-0.6	30
10	Heidenheim	23	7	7	9	-7	-19.1	28
11	Augsburg	23	6	8	9	-8	-6.1	26
12	M'gladbach	23	6	7	10	-4	-4.9	25
13	Wolfsburg	23	6	7	10	-8	-2.7	25
14	Union Berlin	23	7	4	12	-14	-7.6	25
15	Bochum	23	5	10	8	-18	-16.1	25
16	FC Koln	23	3	8	12	-21	-24.0	17
17	Mainz	23	2	9	12	-19	-0.8	15
18	Darmstadt	23	2	7	14	-28	-23.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+27	+20.2	32
2	Bayern Munich	12	10	1	1	+31	+25.2	31
3	Stuttgart	12	9	2	1	+24	+22.3	29
4	RB Leipzig	12	8	2	2	+20	+14.2	26
5	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+6	+9.3	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	5	1	+8	+3.3	20
7	Freiburg	12	5	5	2	+3	+8.2	20
8	M'gladbach	12	5	3	4	+5	+4.6	18
9	Bochum	11	4	6	1	+5	+2.7	18
10	Werder Bremen	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.0	18
11	Heidenheim	11	5	3	3	+2	-5.4	18
12	Augsburg	12	4	5	3	+1	-1.0	17
13	Union Berlin	11	5	2	4	-2	-0.6	17
14	Wolfsburg	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.9	16
15	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-3	+4.0	10
16	FC Koln	11	2	3	6	-7	-8.6	9
17	Mainz	11	2	3	6	-7	+3.6	9
18	Darmstadt	12	1	3	8	-12	-6.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	11	9	2	0	+16	+5.9	29
2	Bayern Munich	12	7	2	3	+6	+16.2	23
3	Hoffenheim	12	6	2	4	+1	-6.2	20
4	Dortmund	11	4	6	1	+10	+0.2	18
5	Stuttgart	11	6	0	5	-1	+3.7	18
6	RB Leipzig	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.5	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-2	-8.0	14
8	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.4	12
9	Heidenheim	12	2	4	6	-9	-13.7	10
10	Freiburg	12	3	1	8	-15	-8.8	10
11	Augsburg	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.1	9
12	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-11	-1.7	9
13	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-12	-6.9	8
14	FC Koln	12	1	5	6	-14	-15.4	8
15	M'gladbach	11	1	4	6	-9	-9.5	7
16	Darmstadt	11	1	4	6	-16	-17.3	7
17	Bochum	12	1	4	7	-23	-18.8	7
18	Mainz	12	0	6	6	-12	-4.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.