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Premier League

Referee: T Harrington

Bournemouth

U S S S T

2–2

Full-time

Man United

S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

4,3

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 42%

35%

48%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

68%

65%

Both score Ø 58%

61%

55%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,64 xG 1,26

43% Possession 57%

20 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 12. · Man United 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	32	22	7	3	+44	+37.5	73
2	Arsenal	31	22	5	4	+51	+40.8	71
3	Liverpool	31	21	8	2	+42	+35.3	71
4	Aston Villa	32	18	6	8	+17	+7.0	60
5	Tottenham	32	18	6	8	+16	+2.2	60
6	Newcastle	32	15	5	12	+17	+7.6	50
7	Man United	31	15	4	12	-1	-11.8	49
8	West Ham	32	13	9	10	-4	-12.6	48
9	Chelsea	30	12	8	10	+3	+12.7	44
10	Brighton	32	11	11	10	+2	+1.5	44
11	Wolves	32	12	7	13	-5	-10.8	43
12	Bournemouth	31	11	8	12	-10	-2.1	41
13	Fulham	32	11	6	15	-4	-11.4	39
14	Everton	31	9	8	14	-10	+1.8	35
15	Brentford	33	8	8	17	-11	+3.1	32
16	Nott'm Forest	33	7	9	17	-16	-5.0	30
17	Crystal Palace	31	7	9	15	-18	-8.3	30
18	Luton	33	6	7	20	-24	-30.9	25
19	Burnley	33	4	8	21	-35	-25.0	20
20	Sheffield United	32	3	7	22	-54	-31.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+29	+30.8	42
2	Man City	17	12	5	0	+29	+22.4	41
3	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+25	+23.1	38
4	Newcastle	17	11	3	3	+23	+19.4	36
5	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+13	+7.7	36
6	Aston Villa	16	11	2	3	+18	+11.5	35
7	Fulham	16	9	1	6	+13	+3.0	28
8	Brighton	15	7	6	2	+9	+5.2	27
9	Man United	15	8	2	5	+1	-0.3	26
10	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+4	+15.2	25
11	West Ham	16	6	7	3	+3	-3.1	25
12	Wolves	15	7	3	5	+0	-4.4	24
13	Bournemouth	16	6	5	5	-3	+2.2	23
14	Brentford	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
15	Nott'm Forest	17	5	5	7	+0	+1.9	20
16	Everton	15	4	4	7	-2	+9.4	16
17	Crystal Palace	15	4	4	7	-3	+1.8	16
18	Luton	16	4	3	9	-3	-3.1	15
19	Burnley	17	2	4	11	-20	-4.1	10
20	Sheffield United	16	2	4	10	-30	-12.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	10	3	3	+26	+17.7	33
2	Man City	15	10	2	3	+15	+15.2	32
3	Liverpool	15	8	5	2	+13	+4.6	29
4	Aston Villa	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.5	25
5	Tottenham	16	6	6	4	+3	-5.5	24
6	Man United	16	7	2	7	-2	-11.5	23
7	West Ham	16	7	2	7	-7	-9.5	23
8	Chelsea	15	5	4	6	-1	-2.4	19
9	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.3	19
10	Everton	16	5	4	7	-8	-7.6	19
11	Bournemouth	15	5	3	7	-7	-4.3	18
12	Brighton	17	4	5	8	-7	-3.7	17
13	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-6	-11.8	14
14	Crystal Palace	16	3	5	8	-15	-10.2	14
15	Brentford	16	3	2	11	-8	-1.7	11
16	Fulham	16	2	5	9	-17	-14.5	11
17	Burnley	16	2	4	10	-15	-20.9	10
18	Nott'm Forest	16	2	4	10	-16	-6.9	10
19	Luton	17	2	4	11	-21	-27.8	10
20	Sheffield United	16	1	3	12	-24	-19.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.