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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Hoffenheim

T T T T T

3–1

Full-time

Hertha

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

63%

54%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,68 xG 1,26

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 9

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 18. · Hertha 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	15	7	2	+46	+5.9	52
2	Dortmund	24	16	2	6	+19	+6.1	50
3	RB Leipzig	24	13	6	5	+20	+6.5	45
4	Union Berlin	24	13	6	5	+8	-0.0	45
5	Freiburg	24	13	6	5	+4	-2.4	45
6	Ein Frankfurt	24	11	7	6	+12	-3.4	40
7	Mainz	24	10	6	8	+4	+0.3	36
8	Wolfsburg	24	9	8	7	+11	+4.2	35
9	Leverkusen	24	10	4	10	+4	+5.8	34
10	M'gladbach	25	8	7	10	-4	-1.0	31
11	Werder Bremen	25	9	4	12	-9	-5.4	31
12	FC Koln	24	6	9	9	-6	+0.6	27
13	Augsburg	24	8	3	13	-13	-2.0	27
14	Bochum	24	7	1	16	-30	-3.2	22
15	Hertha	24	5	6	13	-16	-4.5	21
16	Stuttgart	24	4	8	12	-12	-1.0	20
17	Schalke 04	24	4	8	12	-24	-1.6	20
18	Hoffenheim	24	5	4	15	-14	-4.9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	12	9	2	1	+18	+0.3	29
2	Bayern Munich	12	8	4	0	+28	+8.1	28
3	Dortmund	11	9	1	1	+19	+3.2	28
4	Freiburg	12	8	3	1	+11	+1.0	27
5	Union Berlin	11	7	4	0	+11	+1.6	25
6	M'gladbach	13	7	3	3	+10	+3.7	24
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	7	2	3	+13	+2.3	23
8	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+8	+2.2	19
9	FC Koln	12	5	3	4	+7	+2.9	18
10	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	+8	+3.5	17
11	Wolfsburg	12	4	5	3	+6	+3.1	17
12	Hertha	13	4	5	4	-1	-0.1	17
13	Augsburg	12	5	2	5	-4	+0.1	17
14	Werder Bremen	13	5	1	7	+1	+0.6	16
15	Bochum	11	5	1	5	-4	+1.6	16
16	Stuttgart	12	4	3	5	+1	+1.2	15
17	Schalke 04	13	3	4	6	-14	-1.2	13
18	Hoffenheim	12	3	2	7	-7	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	7	3	2	+18	-2.2	24
2	Dortmund	13	7	1	5	+0	+2.8	22
3	Union Berlin	13	6	2	5	-3	-1.7	20
4	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+5	+1.1	18
5	Freiburg	12	5	3	4	-7	-3.4	18
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	4	5	3	-1	-5.7	17
7	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	-4	+2.3	17
8	Mainz	12	5	2	5	-4	-1.9	17
9	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	+2	+6.2	16
10	Werder Bremen	12	4	3	5	-10	-6.1	15
11	Augsburg	12	3	1	8	-9	-2.2	10
12	FC Koln	12	1	6	5	-13	-2.3	9
13	Hoffenheim	12	2	2	8	-7	-4.6	8
14	Schalke 04	11	1	4	6	-10	-0.4	7
15	M'gladbach	12	1	4	7	-14	-4.7	7
16	Bochum	13	2	0	11	-26	-4.8	6
17	Stuttgart	12	0	5	7	-13	-2.1	5
18	Hertha	11	1	1	9	-15	-4.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.