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Championship

Referee: L Doughty

Cardiff

U T U U T

0–1

Full-time

Millwall

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Championship · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 34%

26%

42%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

30%

38%

Both score Ø 36%

37%

35%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

22 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Millwall 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	28	18	8	2	+29	62
2	Sheffield United	28	17	6	5	+24	57
3	Watford	27	12	7	8	+5	43
4	Middlesbrough	26	12	6	8	+10	42
5	Norwich	28	12	6	10	+9	42
6	Blackburn	27	14	0	13	-4	42
7	West Brom	28	11	8	9	+8	41
8	Millwall	26	11	6	9	+5	39
9	Luton	25	10	8	7	+4	38
10	Swansea	27	10	8	9	+2	38
11	Sunderland	26	10	7	9	+7	37
12	QPR	27	10	7	10	-3	37
13	Preston	27	10	7	10	-6	37
14	Reading	27	11	4	12	-7	37
15	Hull	28	9	7	12	-11	34
16	Bristol City	27	8	8	11	-1	32
17	Coventry	26	8	8	10	-3	32
18	Birmingham	27	8	8	11	-4	32
19	Rotherham	27	7	9	11	-7	30
20	Stoke	27	8	6	13	-8	30
21	Cardiff	27	7	8	12	-9	29
22	Huddersfield	26	7	5	14	-8	26
23	Blackpool	27	6	8	13	-12	26
24	Wigan	27	6	7	14	-20	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	15	11	4	0	+20	37
2	Sheffield United	14	9	3	2	+17	30
3	Millwall	13	8	3	2	+12	27
4	Blackburn	13	9	0	4	+7	27
5	Reading	13	8	2	3	+6	26
6	Watford	13	7	2	4	+7	23
7	Middlesbrough	13	6	5	2	+6	23
8	West Brom	14	6	4	4	+6	22
9	Swansea	13	6	2	5	+4	20
10	Rotherham	13	5	4	4	+7	19
11	Norwich	14	5	4	5	+3	19
12	Coventry	13	5	4	4	+2	19
13	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	+2	18
14	QPR	13	5	3	5	-1	18
15	Birmingham	14	4	5	5	+1	17
16	Huddersfield	14	5	2	7	-1	17
17	Cardiff	14	4	5	5	-1	17
18	Sunderland	13	4	4	5	+1	16
19	Luton	12	3	6	3	+2	15
20	Hull	14	4	3	7	-9	15
21	Preston	14	3	4	7	-10	13
22	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	-5	12
23	Stoke	13	3	3	7	-5	12
24	Wigan	14	2	3	9	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	14	8	3	3	+7	27
2	Burnley	13	7	4	2	+9	25
3	Preston	13	7	3	3	+4	24
4	Norwich	14	7	2	5	+6	23
5	Luton	13	7	2	4	+2	23
6	Sunderland	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Watford	14	5	5	4	-2	20
8	Middlesbrough	13	6	1	6	+4	19
9	West Brom	14	5	4	5	+2	19
10	Hull	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	QPR	14	5	4	5	-2	19
12	Swansea	14	4	6	4	-2	18
13	Stoke	14	5	3	6	-3	18
14	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-3	16
15	Birmingham	13	4	3	6	-5	15
16	Blackburn	14	5	0	9	-11	15
17	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-3	14
18	Blackpool	14	3	5	6	-7	14
19	Coventry	13	3	4	6	-5	13
20	Millwall	13	3	3	7	-7	12
21	Cardiff	13	3	3	7	-8	12
22	Reading	14	3	2	9	-13	11
23	Rotherham	14	2	5	7	-14	11
24	Huddersfield	12	2	3	7	-7	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.