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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

Hoffenheim

S U T S U

4–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 43%

35%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

69%

65%

Both score Ø 75%

88%

62%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

2 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 9. · Leverkusen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	26	19	3	4	+41	60
2	Dortmund	26	18	6	2	+34	60
3	RB Leipzig	26	14	7	5	+24	49
4	M'gladbach	26	14	5	7	+14	47
5	Ein Frankfurt	26	13	7	6	+21	46
6	Leverkusen	26	13	3	10	+7	42
7	Wolfsburg	26	12	6	8	+5	42
8	Werder Bremen	26	10	9	7	+8	39
9	Hoffenheim	26	9	11	6	+12	38
10	Hertha	26	9	8	9	+1	35
11	Freiburg	26	7	10	9	-5	31
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	26	9	4	13	-17	31
13	Mainz	26	8	6	12	-18	30
14	Augsburg	26	6	7	13	-10	25
15	Schalke 04	26	6	5	15	-17	23
16	Stuttgart	26	5	5	16	-30	20
17	Hannover	26	3	5	18	-37	14
18	Nurnberg	26	2	7	17	-33	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Bayern Munich	13	9	3	1	+23	30
3	M'gladbach	13	9	1	3	+12	28
4	RB Leipzig	13	7	5	1	+17	26
5	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	3	3	+12	24
6	Leverkusen	13	7	1	5	+2	22
7	Hoffenheim	13	5	5	3	+7	20
8	Werder Bremen	13	5	5	3	+5	20
9	Freiburg	13	5	5	3	+5	20
10	Hertha	13	5	5	3	+2	20
11	Wolfsburg	13	5	4	4	+2	19
12	Mainz	13	5	4	4	+0	19
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	6	0	7	-4	18
14	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	+3	16
15	Stuttgart	13	4	3	6	-8	15
16	Schalke 04	13	4	1	8	-8	13
17	Nurnberg	13	2	5	6	-5	11
18	Hannover	13	3	1	9	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	0	3	+18	30
2	Dortmund	13	7	4	2	+9	25
3	RB Leipzig	13	7	2	4	+7	23
4	Wolfsburg	13	7	2	4	+3	23
5	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	4	3	+9	22
6	Leverkusen	13	6	2	5	+5	20
7	Werder Bremen	13	5	4	4	+3	19
8	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+2	19
9	Hoffenheim	13	4	6	3	+5	18
10	Hertha	13	4	3	6	-1	15
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	3	4	6	-13	13
12	Freiburg	13	2	5	6	-10	11
13	Mainz	13	3	2	8	-18	11
14	Schalke 04	13	2	4	7	-9	10
15	Augsburg	13	2	3	8	-13	9
16	Stuttgart	13	1	2	10	-22	5
17	Hannover	13	0	4	9	-24	4
18	Nurnberg	13	0	2	11	-28	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.