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Championship

Referee: Anthony Backhouse

Birmingham

S U U T S

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,3

Scored

1,3

3,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 12. · Southampton 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	4	3	1	0	+6	+1.4	10
2	Charlton	3	3	0	0	+3	-2.8	9
3	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.9	7
4	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.0	7
5	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	-4.2	7
6	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.6	6
7	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+2	+3.4	6
8	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.9	6
9	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.3	6
10	Sheffield United	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.5	6
11	West Ham	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.5	5
12	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.2	5
13	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.2	5
14	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.5	5
15	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.1	4
16	Derby	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.6	4
17	Lincoln	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.1	4
18	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
19	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
20	Portsmouth	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
21	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
22	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-5	-0.4	1
23	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0
24	Preston	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.7	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
3	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
4	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
7	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
8	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
9	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
10	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
11	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
12	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
13	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
14	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
15	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
16	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
17	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
18	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
19	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
20	Lincoln	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
21	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
24	Portsmouth	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
3	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.6	4
4	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
5	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
6	Derby	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	-2.2	3
8	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
9	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
10	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
11	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
12	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
13	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.2	2
14	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
15	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
16	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
17	Bolton	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
18	Watford	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.3	1
19	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
20	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
22	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
23	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.