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Championship

Referee: Matt Donohue

Birmingham

T T U T U

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 36%

35%

36%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

52%

73%

Both score Ø 70%

57%

82%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,70 xG 1,36

38% Possession 62%

20 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 16. · Southampton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	24	15	6	3	+29	+19.8	51
2	Ipswich	24	11	8	5	+17	+19.2	41
3	Middlesbrough	22	11	6	5	+5	+6.7	39
4	Millwall	23	11	6	6	-3	+0.5	39
5	Watford	24	10	8	6	+5	+6.2	38
6	Hull	22	11	5	6	+4	-11.4	38
7	Preston	24	9	10	5	+6	-5.9	37
8	Bristol City	24	10	6	8	+6	+0.1	36
9	QPR	24	10	5	9	-3	+1.7	35
10	Stoke	24	10	4	10	+6	-6.1	34
11	Wrexham	24	8	10	6	+3	-5.2	34
12	Leicester	24	9	7	8	+0	-6.2	34
13	Derby	24	8	8	8	+0	-6.2	32
14	West Brom	24	9	4	11	-4	+4.1	31
15	Southampton	22	8	6	8	+4	+10.3	30
16	Birmingham	23	8	6	9	+1	+11.0	30
17	Sheffield United	24	9	2	13	-4	+10.1	29
18	Swansea	24	8	5	11	-6	-6.9	29
19	Blackburn	23	7	6	10	-4	+7.9	27
20	Charlton	23	7	6	10	-7	-9.3	27
21	Portsmouth	23	6	7	10	-9	-6.6	25
22	Oxford	24	5	7	12	-9	-6.8	22
23	Norwich	24	5	6	13	-10	-8.4	21
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	8	14	-27	-18.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	9	2	1	+18	+9.5	29
2	Ipswich	12	7	4	1	+12	+15.6	25
3	Watford	12	7	4	1	+8	+6.8	25
4	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+1.7	24
5	Wrexham	13	6	5	2	+5	+4.6	23
6	Hull	11	7	2	2	+4	-2.9	23
7	Millwall	12	7	2	3	+1	+3.4	23
8	Birmingham	11	6	4	1	+13	+14.2	22
9	West Brom	12	6	4	2	+5	+7.8	22
10	Stoke	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.3	20
11	QPR	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.3	20
12	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	-1.1	20
13	Leicester	12	5	4	3	+3	+1.7	19
14	Southampton	10	5	3	2	+6	+7.5	18
15	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+5	-0.2	18
16	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
17	Swansea	12	5	3	4	-1	-1.6	18
18	Charlton	10	5	2	3	+1	-2.1	17
19	Sheffield United	11	4	2	5	+3	+9.6	14
20	Derby	12	3	5	4	-3	-0.0	14
21	Oxford	12	3	4	5	-4	+0.2	13
22	Norwich	12	3	1	8	-5	+0.3	10
23	Blackburn	11	2	3	6	-5	+5.4	9
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	4	9	-22	-9.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	6	4	2	+11	+10.3	22
2	Derby	12	5	3	4	+3	-6.2	18
3	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	+0.4	18
4	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	+1	+2.5	18
5	Preston	12	4	5	3	+2	-4.8	17
6	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
7	Millwall	11	4	4	3	-4	-2.9	16
8	Hull	11	4	3	4	+0	-8.6	15
9	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	3	+0	+5.0	15
10	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-3	-7.9	15
11	Sheffield United	13	5	0	8	-7	+0.5	15
12	QPR	13	4	3	6	-8	-5.6	15
13	Stoke	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.4	14
14	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
15	Southampton	12	3	3	6	-2	+2.8	12
16	Wrexham	11	2	5	4	-2	-9.9	11
17	Norwich	12	2	5	5	-5	-8.7	11
18	Swansea	12	3	2	7	-5	-5.3	11
19	Charlton	13	2	4	7	-8	-7.3	10
20	Oxford	12	2	3	7	-5	-7.0	9
21	West Brom	12	3	0	9	-9	-3.7	9
22	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-12	-3.2	8
23	Sheffield Weds	10	1	4	5	-5	-9.3	7
24	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	-9	-8.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.