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Super League
Referee: T Stieler
AEK
U U S S T
2–2
Full-time
PAOK
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK PAOK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,3
3,2
Scored
2,7
1,8
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,5
This season — Super League · 31/32 matches
Win Ø 66%
65%
66%
Points per game
2,2
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
68%
66%
Both score Ø 51%
55%
47%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
2,3
2,3
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%
9 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 16
6 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AEK 3. · PAOK 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Olympiakos 33 23 3 7 +45 72
2 Panathinaikos 33 22 5 6 +47 71
3 AEK 31 20 9 2 +40 69
4 PAOK 32 21 4 7 +45 67
5 Aris Thessalonikis 30 14 6 10 +8 48
6 Aris 30 14 6 10 +8 48
7 Lamia 33 10 8 15 -22 38
8 Atromitos 31 8 12 11 -14 36
9 Asteras Tripolis 31 10 4 17 -15 34
10 OFI Crete 31 7 12 12 -14 33
11 Panserraikos 31 7 11 13 -19 32
12 Volos NFC 31 7 8 16 -23 29
13 Panetolikos 31 5 9 17 -25 24
14 Kifisia 31 4 12 15 -31 24
15 Giannina 31 3 11 17 -30 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AEK PAOK
27′
🟨 Thomas Murg
28′
🟨 Soualiho Meïté
1–0 M. Gaćinović
O. Pineda
30′
Mijat Gaćinović 🟨
36′
Half-time 1–0
E. Ponce 🔁
↦ L. García
46′
48′
🟨 Jonny Otto
2–0 N. Amrabat
49′
59′
🔁 M. Samatta
↦ Brandon Thomas
59′
🔁 Joan Sastre
↦ Jonny
59′
🔁 K. Despodov
↦ T. Murg
Damian Szymański 🟨
61′
62′
A. Baba 2–1
G. Konstantelias
66′
🔁 M. Ozdoev
↦ S. Schwab
Domagoj Vida 🟨
68′
68′
🟨 Abdul Baba Rahman
Nordin Amrabat 🟨
71′
J. Jønsson 🔁
↦ N. Amrabat
73′
77′
🟨 Andrija Živković
D. Sidibé 🔁
↦ L. Rota
79′
Ezequiel Ponce 🟨
81′
Giorgos Athanasiadis 🟨
84′
P. Mantalos 🔁
↦ O. Pineda
87′
Paolo Fernandes 🔁
↦ M. Gaćinović
87′
89′
M. Ozdoev 2–2
96′
🟨 Joan Sastre
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

AEK

4-3-1-2
30 G. Athanasiadis G
12 L. Rota D
21 D. Vida D
2 H. Moukoudi D
28 E. Hajisafi D
5 N. Amrabat M
4 D. Szymański M
19 N. Eliasson M
8 M. Gaćinović M
7 L. García F
13 O. Pineda F
Bench (9)
14 E. Ponce
6 J. Jønsson
29 D. Sidibé
20 P. Mantalos
22 Paolo Fernandes
18 A. Callens
10 S. Zuber
11 S. Araújo
99 G. Theocharis

Coach: M. Almeyda

PAOK

4-2-3-1
42 D. Kotarski G
19 Jonny D
16 T. Kędziora D
4 K. Koulierakis D
21 A. Baba D
8 S. Meïté M
22 S. Schwab M
14 A. Živković M
10 T. Murg M
7 G. Konstantelias M
71 Brandon Thomas F
Bench (9)
33 M. Samatta
23 Joan Sastre
77 K. Despodov
27 M. Ozdoev
6 T. Tsingaras
88 Marcos Antônio
18 Ž. Živković
5 G. Michailidis
20 Vieirinha

Coach: R. Lucescu

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,87
U ✓
3,55
B
3,88
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,83
U2,5
1,94
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.