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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Man City

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Watford

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 60%

79%

41%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

69%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

48%

55%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,6

1,4

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%

19 Shots 2

9 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 1

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	29	23	2	4	+56	71
2	Liverpool	29	21	7	1	+49	70
3	Tottenham	30	20	1	9	+25	61
4	Man United	29	17	7	5	+20	58
5	Arsenal	29	17	6	6	+22	57
6	Chelsea	28	17	5	6	+19	56
7	Wolves	29	12	7	10	+2	43
8	Watford	29	12	7	10	+0	43
9	West Ham	30	11	6	13	-6	39
10	Leicester	30	11	5	14	-4	38
11	Everton	30	10	7	13	-1	37
12	Bournemouth	30	11	4	15	-13	37
13	Newcastle	30	9	7	14	-9	34
14	Crystal Palace	30	9	6	15	-5	33
15	Brighton	29	9	6	14	-10	33
16	Southampton	30	7	9	14	-16	30
17	Burnley	29	8	6	15	-21	30
18	Cardiff	30	8	4	18	-30	28
19	Fulham	30	4	5	21	-40	17
20	Huddersfield	30	3	5	22	-38	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	0	1	+39	42
2	Liverpool	14	12	2	0	+33	38
3	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+23	38
4	Chelsea	14	9	4	1	+19	31
5	Man United	14	8	5	1	+10	29
6	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+12	28
7	Bournemouth	15	7	4	4	+7	25
8	West Ham	15	7	3	5	+3	24
9	Wolves	15	7	3	5	+3	24
10	Watford	14	7	2	5	+0	23
11	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+2	22
12	Everton	15	6	4	5	+0	22
13	Newcastle	16	7	1	8	-1	22
14	Leicester	15	6	2	7	+0	20
15	Cardiff	16	6	2	8	-13	20
16	Southampton	15	4	6	5	-3	18
17	Burnley	14	5	2	7	-8	17
18	Fulham	14	4	3	7	-10	15
19	Crystal Palace	15	3	4	8	-6	13
20	Huddersfield	16	2	2	12	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	16	11	0	5	+13	33
2	Liverpool	15	9	5	1	+16	32
3	Man City	14	9	2	3	+17	29
4	Man United	15	9	2	4	+10	29
5	Chelsea	14	8	1	5	+0	25
6	Crystal Palace	15	6	2	7	+1	20
7	Watford	15	5	5	5	+0	20
8	Arsenal	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Wolves	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Leicester	15	5	3	7	-4	18
11	Everton	15	4	3	8	-1	15
12	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-9	15
13	Burnley	15	3	4	8	-13	13
14	Newcastle	14	2	6	6	-8	12
15	Southampton	15	3	3	9	-13	12
16	Bournemouth	15	4	0	11	-20	12
17	Brighton	15	3	2	10	-12	11
18	Cardiff	14	2	2	10	-17	8
19	Huddersfield	14	1	3	10	-21	6
20	Fulham	16	0	2	14	-30	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.