Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Crotone
Alessandria
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cremonese
|
28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | +18 | 53 |
| 2 |
Lecce
|
27 | 14 | 10 | 3 | +22 | 52 |
| 3 |
Pisa
|
28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | +14 | 52 |
| 4 |
Brescia
|
28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | +15 | 51 |
| 5 |
Monza
|
28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | +13 | 48 |
| 6 |
Benevento
|
27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | +18 | 47 |
| 7 |
Frosinone
|
27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | +13 | 44 |
| 8 |
Cittadella
|
28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | +4 | 42 |
| 9 |
Ascoli
|
27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | +3 | 42 |
| 10 |
Perugia
|
27 | 10 | 11 | 6 | +6 | 41 |
| 11 |
Reggina
|
28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |
Como
|
28 | 8 | 12 | 8 | -4 | 36 |
| 13 |
Parma
|
28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | +3 | 34 |
| 14 |
Ternana
|
27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 34 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -8 | 31 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -14 | 24 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -18 | 23 |
| 18 |
Vicenza
|
27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -20 | 18 |
| 19 |
Crotone
|
27 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -19 | 15 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 28 | 2 | 6 | 20 | -34 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Pisa
Crotone
Ascoli
Crotone
Crotone
Cosenza
Lecce
Crotone
Crotone
Brescia
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.