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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Arsenal

S S S S T

0–0

Full-time

Burnley

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 20/17 matches

Win Ø 31%

55%

Points per game

1,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

55%

47%

Both score Ø 47%

35%

59%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

76% Possession 24%

20 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 7. · Burnley 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	23	18	3	2	+41	57
2	Liverpool	21	13	6	2	+37	45
3	Chelsea	23	12	8	3	+28	44
4	Man United	22	11	5	6	+6	38
5	West Ham	23	11	4	8	+10	37
6	Tottenham	19	11	3	5	+4	36
7	Arsenal	20	11	2	7	+8	35
8	Wolves	21	10	4	7	+3	34
9	Brighton	21	6	11	4	+0	29
10	Aston Villa	21	8	2	11	-4	26
11	Leicester	19	7	4	8	-3	25
12	Southampton	22	5	10	7	-8	25
13	Crystal Palace	21	5	9	7	-1	24
14	Brentford	23	6	5	12	-12	23
15	Leeds	21	5	7	9	-16	22
16	Everton	20	5	4	11	-11	19
17	Norwich	22	4	4	14	-32	16
18	Newcastle	21	2	9	10	-22	15
19	Watford	20	4	2	14	-17	14
20	Burnley	17	1	8	8	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	28
2	Liverpool	10	7	3	0	+19	24
3	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+10	22
4	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
5	Chelsea	11	5	5	1	+15	20
6	Man United	11	6	1	4	+3	19
7	Crystal Palace	11	4	5	2	+8	17
8	West Ham	11	5	2	4	+4	17
9	Southampton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
10	Leicester	10	5	1	4	+3	16
11	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+0	14
13	Brighton	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Everton	10	4	1	5	-2	13
15	Brentford	12	4	1	7	-3	13
16	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-4	13
17	Newcastle	11	1	6	4	-9	9
18	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-13	8
19	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
20	Watford	11	2	1	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+13	24
3	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+18	21
4	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+6	20
5	Wolves	11	6	2	3	+3	20
6	Man United	11	5	4	2	+3	19
7	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	15
8	Tottenham	9	4	2	3	-2	14
9	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Aston Villa	11	4	0	7	-5	12
11	Brentford	11	2	4	5	-9	10
12	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
13	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-12	9
14	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-12	9
15	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-19	8
16	Watford	9	2	1	6	-3	7
17	Crystal Palace	10	1	4	5	-9	7
18	Everton	10	1	3	6	-9	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	3	6	-13	6
20	Burnley	10	0	4	6	-11	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.