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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Juventus

U S U U S

1–0

Full-time

Spezia

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 39%

52%

26%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

30%

59%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

59%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 4. · Spezia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	27	17	7	3	+38	58
2	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+30	57
3	Milan	27	17	6	4	+24	57
4	Juventus	27	14	8	5	+16	50
5	Atalanta	27	13	8	6	+19	47
6	Roma	28	14	5	9	+12	47
7	Lazio	28	13	7	8	+15	46
8	Fiorentina	27	13	4	10	+9	43
9	Verona	28	11	8	9	+9	41
10	Sassuolo	28	10	9	9	+3	39
11	Torino	27	9	7	11	+5	34
12	Bologna	27	9	6	12	-10	33
13	Empoli	28	8	8	12	-13	32
14	Udinese	26	6	11	9	-9	29
15	Sampdoria	28	7	5	16	-12	26
16	Spezia	27	7	5	15	-21	26
17	Cagliari	28	5	10	13	-23	25
18	Venezia	27	5	7	15	-26	22
19	Genoa	28	1	15	12	-25	18
20	Salernitana	26	3	6	17	-41	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	Roma	15	8	4	3	+6	28
3	Milan	14	8	3	3	+10	27
4	Fiorentina	13	8	2	3	+15	26
5	Napoli	13	8	2	3	+14	26
6	Verona	14	8	2	4	+12	26
7	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+14	25
8	Torino	14	7	3	4	+11	24
9	Juventus	13	7	3	3	+8	24
10	Bologna	14	6	3	5	+1	21
11	Udinese	13	4	6	3	-2	18
12	Atalanta	13	4	5	4	+6	17
13	Sassuolo	14	4	5	5	-3	17
14	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Spezia	13	3	3	7	-4	12
16	Cagliari	14	2	6	6	-9	12
17	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-15	11
18	Venezia	14	2	4	8	-13	10
19	Genoa	14	0	8	6	-10	8
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	9	4	1	+16	31
2	Milan	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Atalanta	14	9	3	2	+13	30
4	Inter	13	7	5	1	+15	26
5	Juventus	14	7	5	2	+8	26
6	Sassuolo	14	6	4	4	+6	22
7	Empoli	14	5	6	3	+2	21
8	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+1	21
9	Roma	13	6	1	6	+6	19
10	Fiorentina	14	5	2	7	-6	17
11	Verona	14	3	6	5	-3	15
12	Spezia	14	4	2	8	-17	14
13	Cagliari	14	3	4	7	-14	13
14	Bologna	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Venezia	13	3	3	7	-13	12
16	Udinese	13	2	5	6	-7	11
17	Sampdoria	14	3	2	9	-9	11
18	Torino	13	2	4	7	-6	10
19	Genoa	14	1	7	6	-15	10
20	Salernitana	13	2	2	9	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.