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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Arsenal

S U T S T

3–2

Full-time

Watford

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 29%

35%

22%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 51%

59%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 10. · Watford 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	37	31	3	3	+50	96
2	Man City	37	25	3	9	+62	78
3	Man United	37	17	12	8	+28	63
4	Chelsea	37	19	6	12	+13	63
5	Leicester	37	18	8	11	+28	62
6	Wolves	37	15	14	8	+13	59
7	Tottenham	37	16	10	11	+14	58
8	Sheffield United	37	14	12	11	+2	54
9	Burnley	37	15	9	13	-6	54
10	Arsenal	37	13	14	10	+7	53
11	Everton	37	13	10	14	-10	49
12	Southampton	37	14	7	16	-11	49
13	Newcastle	37	11	11	15	-18	44
14	Crystal Palace	37	11	9	17	-19	42
15	West Ham	37	10	8	19	-13	38
16	Brighton	37	8	14	15	-16	38
17	Aston Villa	37	9	7	21	-26	34
18	Watford	37	8	10	19	-27	34
19	Bournemouth	37	8	7	22	-27	31
20	Norwich	37	5	6	26	-44	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	18	1	0	+36	55
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+39	44
3	Tottenham	19	12	3	4	+19	39
4	Man United	19	10	7	2	+23	37
5	Leicester	18	11	4	3	+20	37
6	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+12	33
7	Arsenal	18	9	6	3	+11	33
8	Sheffield United	19	10	3	6	+9	33
9	Wolves	19	8	7	4	+8	31
10	Everton	18	8	7	3	+5	31
11	Burnley	18	8	4	6	+2	28
12	Newcastle	18	6	8	4	+1	26
13	Watford	19	6	6	7	-5	24
14	Aston Villa	19	7	3	9	-8	24
15	Crystal Palace	18	6	4	8	-5	22
16	Brighton	19	5	7	7	-7	22
17	West Ham	18	6	3	9	-3	21
18	Bournemouth	19	5	6	8	-8	21
19	Southampton	18	5	3	10	-16	18
20	Norwich	19	4	3	12	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	13	2	3	+14	41
2	Man City	19	11	1	7	+23	34
3	Southampton	19	9	4	6	+5	31
4	Chelsea	19	9	3	7	+1	30
5	Wolves	18	7	7	4	+5	28
6	Man United	18	7	5	6	+5	26
7	Burnley	19	7	5	7	-8	26
8	Leicester	19	7	4	8	+8	25
9	Sheffield United	18	4	9	5	-7	21
10	Arsenal	19	4	8	7	-4	20
11	Crystal Palace	19	5	5	9	-14	20
12	Tottenham	18	4	7	7	-5	19
13	Everton	19	5	3	11	-15	18
14	Newcastle	19	5	3	11	-19	18
15	West Ham	19	4	5	10	-10	17
16	Brighton	18	3	7	8	-9	16
17	Aston Villa	18	2	4	12	-18	10
18	Bournemouth	18	3	1	14	-19	10
19	Watford	18	2	4	12	-22	10
20	Norwich	18	1	3	14	-26	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.