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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Birmingham

U T U U T

3–2

Full-time

Coventry

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Coventry

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 46%

32%

60%

Points per game

1,2

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

52%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,27 xG 1,33

24% Possession 76%

9 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 6

4 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Birmingham 17. · Coventry 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	25	15	7	3	+29	+19.9	52
2	Ipswich	25	12	8	5	+18	+19.6	44
3	Watford	25	11	8	6	+8	+7.3	41
4	Preston	25	10	10	5	+9	-4.2	40
5	Millwall	24	11	7	6	-3	+1.0	40
6	Bristol City	25	11	6	8	+11	+1.2	39
7	Middlesbrough	23	11	6	6	+4	+6.8	39
8	Hull	23	11	5	7	+3	-11.8	38
9	Stoke	25	11	4	10	+7	-5.7	37
10	Wrexham	25	9	10	6	+5	-5.2	37
11	Derby	25	9	8	8	+1	-6.3	35
12	QPR	25	10	5	10	-4	+0.5	35
13	Leicester	25	9	7	9	-2	-8.4	34
14	Southampton	24	8	8	8	+4	+9.5	32
15	Sheffield United	25	10	2	13	-2	+12.3	32
16	Swansea	25	9	5	11	-5	-7.3	32
17	Birmingham	25	8	7	10	-2	+10.1	31
18	West Brom	25	9	4	12	-5	+4.5	31
19	Charlton	24	7	7	10	-7	-9.4	28
20	Blackburn	24	7	6	11	-6	+7.8	27
21	Portsmouth	24	6	7	11	-14	-7.7	25
22	Norwich	25	6	6	13	-9	-7.2	24
23	Oxford	25	5	7	13	-10	-7.1	22
24	Sheffield Weds	24	1	8	15	-30	-20.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	9	2	1	+18	+9.5	29
2	Ipswich	13	8	4	1	+13	+15.9	28
3	Watford	13	8	4	1	+11	+7.9	28
4	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+1.7	24
5	Birmingham	12	6	5	1	+13	+14.5	23
6	Preston	13	6	5	2	+7	+0.6	23
7	Wrexham	13	6	5	2	+5	+4.6	23
8	Hull	12	7	2	3	+3	-3.2	23
9	Millwall	12	7	2	3	+1	+3.4	23
10	West Brom	12	6	4	2	+5	+7.8	22
11	Bristol City	13	6	3	4	+10	+0.8	21
12	Swansea	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.0	21
13	Stoke	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.3	20
14	QPR	12	6	2	4	+4	+6.1	20
15	Southampton	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.0	19
16	Leicester	12	5	4	3	+3	+1.7	19
17	Charlton	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.2	18
18	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
19	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+5	+11.8	17
20	Derby	13	4	5	4	-2	-0.1	17
21	Oxford	12	3	4	5	-4	+0.2	13
22	Norwich	12	3	1	8	-5	+0.3	10
23	Blackburn	12	2	3	7	-7	+5.4	9
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	4	9	-22	-9.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	13	6	5	2	+11	+10.4	23
2	Derby	12	5	3	4	+3	-6.2	18
3	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	+0.4	18
4	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	+1	+2.5	18
5	Preston	12	4	5	3	+2	-4.8	17
6	Stoke	13	5	2	6	-1	-6.1	17
7	Millwall	12	4	5	3	-4	-2.4	17
8	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
9	Hull	11	4	3	4	+0	-8.6	15
10	Middlesbrough	11	4	3	4	-1	+5.1	15
11	Leicester	13	4	3	6	-5	-10.1	15
12	Sheffield United	13	5	0	8	-7	+0.5	15
13	QPR	13	4	3	6	-8	-5.6	15
14	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	+0	-9.8	14
15	Norwich	13	3	5	5	-4	-7.5	14
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-2	+2.5	13
17	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
18	Swansea	12	3	2	7	-5	-5.3	11
19	Charlton	13	2	4	7	-8	-7.3	10
20	Oxford	13	2	3	8	-6	-7.3	9
21	West Brom	13	3	0	10	-10	-3.3	9
22	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-15	-4.4	8
23	Sheffield Weds	11	1	4	6	-8	-11.0	7
24	Portsmouth	11	1	4	6	-14	-9.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.