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Championship

Referee: Tom Nield

Hull

S S U S T

3–2

Full-time

Portsmouth

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hull Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 32%

43%

21%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

71%

36%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

3,2

1,9

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,36 xG 1,29

57% Possession 43%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

6 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hull 8. · Portsmouth 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	9	4	1	+26	+16.4	31
2	Stoke	14	8	3	3	+12	-0.3	27
3	Preston	14	7	4	3	+6	+0.6	25
4	Middlesbrough	13	7	4	2	+5	+3.1	25
5	Millwall	14	7	3	4	-3	+1.4	24
6	Charlton	14	6	5	3	+5	-0.4	23
7	Bristol City	15	6	5	4	+4	+0.4	23
8	Hull	14	6	4	4	+1	-8.9	22
9	Birmingham	14	6	3	5	+4	+8.8	21
10	Ipswich	13	5	5	3	+7	+10.7	20
11	Watford	15	5	5	5	+1	+2.4	20
12	Derby	14	5	5	4	+0	-5.5	20
13	Leicester	14	4	6	4	+1	-2.8	18
14	Wrexham	14	4	6	4	+0	-5.6	18
15	West Brom	14	5	3	6	-3	-0.5	18
16	QPR	14	5	3	6	-6	+0.8	18
17	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-1	-5.1	17
18	Blackburn	13	5	1	7	-4	+4.5	16
19	Southampton	13	3	5	5	-5	+3.0	14
20	Portsmouth	14	3	5	6	-7	-4.5	14
21	Oxford	14	3	4	7	-5	-3.0	13
22	Norwich	14	2	3	9	-8	-4.6	9
23	Sheffield United	14	3	0	11	-15	-1.2	9
24	Sheffield Weds	14	1	5	8	-15	-9.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	5	2	0	+15	+6.6	17
2	Watford	8	5	2	1	+6	+3.7	17
3	Preston	8	5	2	1	+5	-0.7	17
4	Ipswich	8	4	3	1	+6	+10.4	15
5	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+9	+9.4	14
6	Charlton	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.2	14
7	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+4	+0.4	14
8	Hull	7	4	2	1	+2	-3.0	14
9	Stoke	6	4	1	1	+7	+2.5	13
10	Derby	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.3	12
11	Millwall	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.6	12
12	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.3	11
13	Leicester	7	2	4	1	+1	+2.8	10
14	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.4	9
15	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
16	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.5	9
17	QPR	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.1	8
18	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-3	-0.3	8
19	Oxford	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.1	6
20	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-2	+4.8	5
21	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
22	Sheffield United	6	1	0	5	-7	+0.6	3
23	Sheffield Weds	8	0	2	6	-15	-6.8	2
24	Norwich	6	0	0	6	-7	+0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	4	2	1	+11	+9.8	14
2	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+5	-2.8	14
3	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.6	12
4	Blackburn	7	4	0	3	+1	+3.9	12
5	Millwall	7	3	3	1	-1	+0.8	12
6	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+1	+2.7	11
7	QPR	7	3	1	3	-4	-2.3	10
8	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	+1	-5.5	9
9	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.6	9
10	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
11	Southampton	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.8	9
12	West Brom	8	3	0	5	-4	-2.9	9
13	Preston	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.3	8
14	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+0	-5.6	8
15	Derby	6	2	2	2	+0	-5.1	8
16	Swansea	7	2	2	3	+0	-3.7	8
17	Hull	7	2	2	3	-1	-5.8	8
18	Oxford	7	2	1	4	-1	-4.1	7
19	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.5	7
20	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	+0	-2.9	6
21	Portsmouth	6	1	3	2	-4	-4.2	6
22	Sheffield United	8	2	0	6	-8	-1.8	6
23	Ipswich	5	1	2	2	+1	+0.3	5
24	Watford	7	0	3	4	-5	-1.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.