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Championship

Referee: Stephen Martin

Derby

U T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Hull

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Hull

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

31%

46%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

31%

69%

Both score Ø 66%

62%

69%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,94 xG 1,25

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 17. · Hull 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	13	8	4	1	+24	+15.3	28
2	Stoke	13	7	3	3	+9	-0.7	24
3	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+3.3	24
4	Millwall	13	7	3	3	+1	+3.2	24
5	Bristol City	13	6	4	3	+5	+2.1	22
6	Preston	13	6	4	3	+5	+0.6	22
7	Hull	13	6	4	3	+2	-9.2	22
8	Charlton	13	5	5	3	+4	-0.2	20
9	Ipswich	12	5	4	3	+7	+9.1	19
10	Watford	13	5	3	5	+1	+3.4	18
11	Birmingham	13	5	3	5	+0	+7.1	18
12	West Brom	13	5	3	5	-2	-0.7	18
13	QPR	13	5	3	5	-5	-0.2	18
14	Leicester	13	4	5	4	+1	-3.0	17
15	Wrexham	13	4	5	4	+0	-4.8	17
16	Swansea	13	4	5	4	+0	-5.1	17
17	Derby	13	4	5	4	-1	-5.2	17
18	Oxford	13	3	4	6	-2	-2.6	13
19	Blackburn	12	4	1	7	-5	+3.4	13
20	Portsmouth	13	3	4	6	-7	-5.3	13
21	Southampton	12	2	5	5	-6	+3.9	11
22	Sheffield United	13	3	0	10	-13	-0.1	9
23	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-8	-4.1	8
24	Sheffield Weds	13	1	4	8	-15	-10.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Watford	7	5	1	1	+6	+3.0	16
2	Coventry	6	4	2	0	+13	+5.5	14
3	Ipswich	7	4	2	1	+6	+8.8	14
4	Preston	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.7	14
5	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+4	+0.4	14
6	Hull	7	4	2	1	+2	-3.0	14
7	Stoke	6	4	1	1	+7	+2.5	13
8	Millwall	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.6	12
9	Birmingham	6	3	2	1	+5	+7.6	11
10	Charlton	6	3	2	1	+4	+2.3	11
11	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	-0.1	11
12	Leicester	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.6	9
13	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.4	9
14	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
15	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.5	9
16	Derby	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
17	QPR	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.1	8
18	Portsmouth	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.1	7
19	Oxford	6	1	3	2	-1	+1.5	6
20	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-2	+4.8	5
21	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
22	Sheffield United	6	1	0	5	-7	+0.6	3
23	Sheffield Weds	7	0	1	6	-15	-7.3	1
24	Norwich	6	0	0	6	-7	+0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	4	2	1	+11	+9.8	14
2	Millwall	6	3	3	0	+3	+2.5	12
3	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.2	11
4	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.2	11
5	Middlesbrough	6	3	1	2	+1	+2.9	10
6	QPR	7	3	1	3	-4	-2.3	10
7	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.6	9
8	Blackburn	6	3	0	3	+0	+2.7	9
9	West Brom	7	3	0	4	-3	-3.1	9
10	Wrexham	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.8	8
11	Preston	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.3	8
12	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+1	-3.6	8
13	Hull	6	2	2	2	+0	-6.1	8
14	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+0	-5.6	8
15	Derby	6	2	2	2	+0	-5.1	8
16	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.1	8
17	Oxford	7	2	1	4	-1	-4.1	7
18	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.5	7
19	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	+0	-2.9	6
20	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	-0.8	6
21	Portsmouth	6	1	3	2	-4	-4.2	6
22	Sheffield United	7	2	0	5	-6	-0.8	6
23	Ipswich	5	1	2	2	+1	+0.3	5
24	Watford	6	0	2	4	-5	+0.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.