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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Stoke

T T S T T

2–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 34/33 matches

Win Ø 33%

26%

39%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

41%

58%

Both score Ø 53%

44%

61%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,15 xG 0,86

38% Possession 62%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 22. · Middlesbrough 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	34	25	3	6	+41	+28.3	78
2	Ipswich	34	21	9	4	+23	+20.2	72
3	Leeds	33	20	7	6	+35	+29.0	67
4	Southampton	32	18	7	7	+20	+22.1	61
5	West Brom	33	17	8	8	+21	+8.2	59
6	Hull	34	16	7	11	+7	+6.4	55
7	Norwich	32	15	7	10	+10	-2.2	52
8	Preston	34	15	7	12	-5	-11.9	52
9	Coventry	35	13	12	10	+10	+10.5	51
10	Sunderland	34	14	5	15	+7	+9.9	47
11	Cardiff	35	14	5	16	-8	-19.0	47
12	Watford	34	11	11	12	+3	+1.6	44
13	Bristol City	35	12	8	15	-1	-0.4	44
14	Middlesbrough	33	13	5	15	-2	+11.4	44
15	Plymouth	34	10	10	14	-4	-16.3	40
16	Blackburn	34	11	6	17	-12	-5.2	39
17	Swansea	34	10	9	15	-12	-10.6	39
18	Birmingham	33	10	8	15	-13	-6.2	38
19	Huddersfield	35	8	14	13	-15	-12.0	38
20	Millwall	34	9	9	16	-14	-10.9	36
21	QPR	34	9	8	17	-13	-9.6	35
22	Stoke	34	9	8	17	-17	-3.3	35
23	Sheffield Weds	34	9	5	20	-25	-7.1	32
24	Rotherham	34	3	10	21	-36	-32.9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	12	4	0	+25	+19.9	40
2	Leicester	17	13	1	3	+23	+15.4	40
3	Ipswich	17	12	4	1	+17	+17.8	40
4	West Brom	17	12	3	2	+17	+9.3	39
5	Norwich	16	11	2	3	+14	+6.8	35
6	Southampton	16	10	2	4	+18	+15.7	32
7	Sunderland	17	10	0	7	+8	+8.2	30
8	Preston	17	9	3	5	-2	-5.3	30
9	Coventry	17	7	8	2	+7	+6.4	29
10	Plymouth	17	8	4	5	+8	-5.9	28
11	Birmingham	16	7	6	3	+5	+1.2	27
12	Hull	17	7	5	5	+7	+7.3	26
13	Bristol City	18	7	3	8	+1	+1.3	24
14	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	-1	-8.6	24
15	Huddersfield	18	5	7	6	-2	-3.2	22
16	Sheffield Weds	17	6	4	7	-2	+1.6	22
17	Middlesbrough	17	6	3	8	-3	+7.9	21
18	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-4	+2.8	21
19	Watford	17	5	5	7	+4	+8.7	20
20	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-9	+0.1	19
21	QPR	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
22	Swansea	17	4	5	8	-7	-1.8	17
23	Millwall	17	4	4	9	-13	-3.7	16
24	Rotherham	17	3	6	8	-6	-8.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	17	12	2	3	+18	+12.9	38
2	Ipswich	17	9	5	3	+6	+2.4	32
3	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+2	+6.4	29
4	Hull	17	9	2	6	+0	-0.8	29
5	Leeds	17	8	3	6	+10	+9.1	27
6	Watford	17	6	6	5	-1	-7.1	24
7	Middlesbrough	16	7	2	7	+1	+3.5	23
8	Cardiff	18	7	2	9	-7	-10.4	23
9	Coventry	18	6	4	8	+3	+4.1	22
10	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
11	Swansea	17	6	4	7	-5	-8.8	22
12	West Brom	16	5	5	6	+4	-1.1	20
13	Millwall	17	5	5	7	-1	-7.2	20
14	Bristol City	17	5	5	7	-2	-1.6	20
15	QPR	17	5	3	9	-7	-7.4	18
16	Blackburn	17	5	3	9	-8	-8.1	18
17	Sunderland	17	4	5	8	-1	+1.7	17
18	Norwich	16	4	5	7	-4	-9.0	17
19	Stoke	17	4	4	9	-8	-3.4	16
20	Huddersfield	17	3	7	7	-13	-8.9	16
21	Plymouth	17	2	6	9	-12	-10.4	12
22	Birmingham	17	3	2	12	-18	-7.4	11
23	Sheffield Weds	17	3	1	13	-23	-8.6	10
24	Rotherham	17	0	4	13	-30	-24.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.