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Ligue 1
Referee: E Wattellier
Lyon
U U T S S
2–3
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
4,2
Scored
2,0
3,7
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+3,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 61%
45%
77%
Points per game
1,6
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
59%
68%
Both score Ø 64%
55%
73%
Average goals
3,0
3,6
Scored
1,8
2,7
Conceded
1,2
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,78 xG 2,46
35% Possession 65%
14 Shots 15
7 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 4
4 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lyon 6. · Paris SG 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 22 17 5 0 +39 +37.5 56
2 Marseille 23 14 4 5 +21 +12.5 46
3 Nice 23 12 7 4 +19 +14.5 43
4 Lille 23 11 8 4 +15 +8.6 41
5 Monaco 23 12 4 7 +14 +24.3 40
6 Lyon 22 10 6 6 +13 +6.7 36
7 Strasbourg 23 9 7 7 +5 -4.9 34
8 Lens 23 9 6 8 +1 +4.4 33
9 Brest 23 10 3 10 -3 -9.6 33
10 Toulouse 23 8 6 9 +1 +8.4 30
11 Auxerre 23 7 7 9 -3 -11.4 28
12 Angers 23 7 6 10 -8 -6.4 27
13 Rennes 23 8 2 13 -2 +1.8 26
14 Nantes 23 5 9 9 -12 -9.1 24
15 Reims 23 5 7 11 -9 -13.3 22
16 St Etienne 23 5 4 14 -30 -29.4 19
17 Le Havre 23 5 2 16 -28 -16.8 17
18 Montpellier 23 4 3 16 -33 -17.9 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lyon Paris SG
36′
🟨 Achraf Hakimi
Half-time 0–1
53′
A. Hakimi 0–1
B. Barcola
59′
O. Dembélé 0–2
K. Kvaratskhelia
61′
🔁 Fabián Ruiz
↦ D. Doué
A. Lacazette 🔁
↦ N. Matić
64′
T. Almada 🔁
↦ E. Nuamah
64′
68′
🔁 L. Hernández
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
74′
🔁 Lee Kang-In
↦ B. Barcola
75′
🔁 Gonçalo Ramos
↦ O. Dembélé
A. Maitland-Niles 🔁
↦ S. Kumbedi
80′
G. Mikautadze 🔁
↦ M. Fofana
80′
1–2 R. Cherki
G. Mikautadze
83′
Thiago Almada 🟨
85′
85′
A. Hakimi 1–3
Lee Kang-In
2–3 C. Tolisso
A. Maitland-Niles
92′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Lyon

4-3-3
1 Lucas Perri G
20 S. Kumbedi D
22 Clinton Mata D
19 M. Niakhaté D
3 N. Tagliafico D
31 N. Matić M
15 T. Tessmann M
8 C. Tolisso M
37 E. Nuamah F
18 R. Cherki F
11 M. Fofana F
Bench (9)
10 A. Lacazette
23 T. Almada
98 A. Maitland-Niles
69 G. Mikautadze
4 P. Akouokou
55 D. Ćaleta-Car
7 J. Veretout
40 R. Descamps
27 W. Omari

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Paris SG

4-3-3
1 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
35 Beraldo D
25 Nuno Mendes D
14 D. Doué M
17 Vitinha M
87 João Neves M
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
10 O. Dembélé F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (9)
8 Fabián Ruiz
21 L. Hernández
19 Lee Kang-In
9 Gonçalo Ramos
3 P. Kimpembe
24 S. Mayulu
51 W. Pacho
80 Arnau Tenas
39 M. Safonov

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,25
U
4,26
B ✓
1,72
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,40
U2,5
2,91
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E Wattellier · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.